If you haven't read the Imperial report you may underestimate how long we'll be social distancing for (it says months) (https://imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …) If you have read it, you may overestimate because it doesn't account for improved testing/contact tracing (https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions …)
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We seem to have no good data on a critical question - what % of the total population has already been infected. lots of proxies point to asymptomatic infections being a multiple of symptomatic positive test. Worried we may be missing the forest for the trees.
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I think that’s the rationale for immediate lockdown and only relaxing it once tests and contact tracing have been rolled out extensively
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