Will 0.9% fatality rate turn out to be accurate? There’re no broad studies with antibody testing for a large cohort of randomly selected people but 9.3% of the NBA players tested were positive with a live infection. If infection rates are 2x or 3x, IFR may be 1/2 or 1/3rd.
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Probably not but doubt there’ll be reliable enough data to action on that anytime soon, especially as effectiveness of suppression/social distancing has exponential decay and NBA players unlikely to be representative sample?
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Your second point is the biggest *IF* right now facing the U.S. We have a couple of weeks to make testing / contract tracing happen in a big way. Otherwise, we're going to be replaying Bay Area shut-down again in a few months.
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We will get there because we have to
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Spot on distillation.
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Really well done.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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