Good paper on intervention strategies https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf … Modeled impacts of different strategiespic.twitter.com/vMREDa302R
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Good paper on intervention strategies https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf … Modeled impacts of different strategiespic.twitter.com/vMREDa302R
This is a sort of middle ground approach and gets 2/3 of the affects without draconian efforts. Also keeps schools open and allows healthcare workers and others to work and be part of the solution.
I thought the paper was recommending against this approach, at least in context of UK policy, because it would flood the NHS capacity quickly?
Everyone seems to be forgetting wave 2. The more effective the quarantine, the larger and more likely a second epidemic wave is just a few months later
Right the second wave is inevitable but the argument is it’s better to deal with that than an overwhelming surge now as there’s more time to be prepared for it, roll out testing/increase beds/etc?
I am skeptical but hopeful. A lot of people are waiting for a vaccine or drugs in time. Unclear this will happen Wondering if the world governments understand the human damage and suffering that will be done if entire economy frozen for prolonged periods
This has been controversial in UK with govt originally going for mitigation but switching to suppression, post findings in this paper and public pushback. Ideal would be govts disciplined re suppression and creative re mitigating economic damage eg Romney proposal
Re second wave: China and Singapore have been dealing with multiple new imported cases of the virus well. They have the tools now to quickly identify and extinguish an outbreak. Soon Western societies will have the same tools. I don’t think a second wave will be nearly as bad
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