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harjtaggar's profile
Harj Taggar
Harj Taggar
Harj Taggar
@harjtaggar

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Harj Taggar

@harjtaggar

iPhone: 49.284729,-123.109573
harj.posthaven.com
Joined October 2006

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    Harj Taggar‏ @harjtaggar Mar 14
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    What are the strongest arguments for herd immunity vs containment as a strategy?

    11:59 AM - 14 Mar 2020
    • 10 Likes
    • Farooq Dave Craige Nic Pantucci plg Michel Teivel Adam Abecid Lady Lucy🇬🇧🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺🇸UncensoredMuse.com Nicolas Verellen Geoffrey Woo
    11 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
      1. Harj Taggar‏ @harjtaggar Mar 14
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        Harj Taggar Retweeted Professor Ian Donald

        The most detailed argument for herd immunity I found: https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=20 … Discussion on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22577132 … tl;dr - it risks more infections now for less infections later. Requires v accurate models, which UK scientists claim to have but have not shared publicly.

        Harj Taggar added,

        Professor Ian Donald @iandonald_psych
        1. The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.
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        3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      2. Kieran O'Neill‏Verified account @KieranO Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments, science-led, and has had a large team prepping for a pandemic for a long time. Their models will be second to none. They show that containment will work short-term but without immunity it'll mutate and be back again quickly.

        4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Kulveer  ⚡️‏Verified account @kul Mar 14
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        Replying to @KieranO @harjtaggar

        Kieran mate I must admit I laughed when I read this bit: “The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments”

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      2. Venkatesh Thallam‏ @vthallam Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        There’s no evidence of herd immunity working, and containment on the other hand seems to be working for some Asian countries. Think this is enough argument?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Harj Taggar‏ @harjtaggar Mar 14
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        Replying to @vthallam

        Right, my question is what are the strongest arguments in favor of herd immunity despite that. Goal is to improve my understanding.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Francisco Tolmasky‏ @tolmasky Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        It is effective at post-facto narrative building that you were always doing the right thing.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Francesco Cardoletti‏ @fcardoletti Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        Herd immunity without a strategy to protect the vulnerable is irresponsible no matter what the final outcome is. Herd immunity may turn out to be a very costly experiment.

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Omar Ismail‏ @omarismail Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        If this is related to covid19 then we don't know if being infected once makes you immune. In fact there's at least one case of reinfection in Japan. So "immunity" may not exist until a vaccine.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Ted Suzman‏ @RoboTeddy Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        They don't seem like mutually exclusive strategies— can social distance as much as possible so that as great a portion of infected people get good medical care; and eventually can end up with herd immunity due to ~50%+ attack rate and/or vaccine.

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      2. plg‏ @rchplg Mar 14
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        Replying to @harjtaggar

        1/ -herd immunity achievable w/ non-vulnerable pop, quarantine elderly -containment not economically viable, >year quarantine, no international travel for years -containment fatigue, better to lower R0 by quickly infecting all young people -long vaccine timelines That said...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. plg‏ @rchplg Mar 14
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        Replying to @rchplg @harjtaggar

        ... I don't believe this strategy, at least for time being. Looks like containment might be possible, b/c SK evidence. But we'll see how economically costly it is to maintain SK's strategy, or if they have to relax some measures => new outbreak Fast vaccines maybe promising

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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