The most detailed argument for herd immunity I found: https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=20 … Discussion on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22577132 … tl;dr - it risks more infections now for less infections later. Requires v accurate models, which UK scientists claim to have but have not shared publicly.
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The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments, science-led, and has had a large team prepping for a pandemic for a long time. Their models will be second to none. They show that containment will work short-term but without immunity it'll mutate and be back again quickly.
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Kieran mate I must admit I laughed when I read this bit: “The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments”
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There’s no evidence of herd immunity working, and containment on the other hand seems to be working for some Asian countries. Think this is enough argument?
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Right, my question is what are the strongest arguments in favor of herd immunity despite that. Goal is to improve my understanding.
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It is effective at post-facto narrative building that you were always doing the right thing.
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Herd immunity without a strategy to protect the vulnerable is irresponsible no matter what the final outcome is. Herd immunity may turn out to be a very costly experiment.
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If this is related to covid19 then we don't know if being infected once makes you immune. In fact there's at least one case of reinfection in Japan. So "immunity" may not exist until a vaccine.
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They don't seem like mutually exclusive strategies— can social distance as much as possible so that as great a portion of infected people get good medical care; and eventually can end up with herd immunity due to ~50%+ attack rate and/or vaccine.
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1/ -herd immunity achievable w/ non-vulnerable pop, quarantine elderly -containment not economically viable, >year quarantine, no international travel for years -containment fatigue, better to lower R0 by quickly infecting all young people -long vaccine timelines That said...
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... I don't believe this strategy, at least for time being. Looks like containment might be possible, b/c SK evidence. But we'll see how economically costly it is to maintain SK's strategy, or if they have to relax some measures => new outbreak Fast vaccines maybe promising
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