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NEW: @uscensusbureau research finds adding a #CitizenshipQuestion will likely reduce #2020Census responses at a rate higher than previously estimated for U.S. households with noncitizens. "Best estimate" by researchers is now at least 8% -- up from 5.8%
https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6165808-U-S-Census-Bureau-Working-Paper-Understanding …
2. These estimates are significant because if people choose to not respond to the #2020Census themselves, that would affect "not only citizenship statistics but also other demographic statistics and the population coverage of the count itself," @uscensusbureau researchers write.
3. If you don't respond to #2020Census, @uscensusbureau workers will likely visit your home. If they can't reach someone after multiple tries, they'll have to ask a neighbor or turn to existing records for answers that are probably less accurate than info reported by household.
4. Earlier estimate of 5.8% drop in #2020Census self-response rate among households w noncitizens came from August 2018 version of the @uscensusbureau working paper. New 8% estimate is based on more recent American Community Survey data -- earlier threadhttps://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1034816025794101249 …
5. Since August, @uscensusbureau has put out other research suggesting households with noncitizens are worried #CitizenshipQuestion answers could be used against them, despite laws protecting confidentiality & restricting use of #2020Census responseshttps://www.npr.org/2018/11/01/663061835/citizenship-question-may-be-major-barrier-to-2020-census-participation …
6. In a footnote, @uscensusbureau researchers cite comment from focus group participant of Middle Eastern/North African descent who said: "Every single scrap of information that the government gets goes to every single
intelligence agency" (p 53 of PDF)
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-focus-group.pdf …pic.twitter.com/aLAworNPro
7. In another footnote, @uscensusbureau researchers point to a comment by a focus group participant of Vietnamese descent who said the #CitizenshipQuestion is used "to make people panic" (p 70 of PDF)
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-focus-group.pdf …pic.twitter.com/AxCfFR8kYg
8. Adding a #CitizenshipQuestion will also raise the cost of the #2020Census by $121 million, @uscensusbureau researchers estimate. They previewed their latest estimates in April at @PopAssocAmerica's annual meeting -- earlier threadhttps://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1126963650324041729 …
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2019/paa/20190405%20journal%20paper%20presentation.pdf … pic.twitter.com/EMG6T33Gjs9. @uscensusbureau researchers' working paper assumes #CitizenshipQuestion won't affect households w all US citizens. But researchers note some of these households "could boycott the census in solidarity with noncitizens, whereas others may become more excited to participate."
10. Their analysis also doesn't reflect any potential new "changes in policy, trust in government, or public discourse" on #CitizenshipQuestion before/during #2020Census, @uscensusbureau researchers note.
That's why this experiment is taking place nowhttps://www.npr.org/2019/06/13/731629018/as-legal-battle-persists-census-citizenship-question-is-put-to-the-test …
11. This paper "Predicting the Effect of Adding a #CitizenshipQuestion to the #2020Census" is set to be published soon in the peer-reviewed journal Demography. I found this revised version of what's been called the "Brown paper" via @repec_org IDEAS sitehttps://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/19-18.html …
12. There's a paragraph the @uscensusbureau researchers wrote in their revised working paper that's a reminder of why it's significant that Commerce @SecretaryRoss decided to add the #CitizenshipQuestion before it could be tested on a #2020Census formpic.twitter.com/n7tRtmB8X8
13. To give you a sense of the scope here, @uscensusbureau researchers previously said a 5.8% drop in the #2020Census self-response rate among noncitizen households translates into an estimated 6.5 million people.
A 8% drop translates into an estimated ~9 million people.
14. CORRECTION: Earlier references to percentages should be percentage points. In fact, the latest @uscensusbureau estimate finds a #CitizenshipQuestion is likely to result in #2020Census response rate going down by 8 percentage points more for noncitizen than citizen households.
15. @uscensusbureau spokesperson Julie Iriondo confirms paper "Predicting the Effect of Adding a #CitizenshipQuestion to the #2020Census" posted on @repec_org IDEAS site on 6/21 (https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/19-18.html …).
Bureau posted slides previewing estimates in May: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2019/paa/20190405%20journal%20paper%20presentation.pdf …
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