Full story by @clivecookson here:https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 …
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It appears that this model, now known to have been badly wrong, had more influence on UK government disease control policy than the advice of the WHO, and the experience of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.
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The authors of the model now say they realised "in the last few days" that the strategy they had recommended would result in around "250,000 deaths" in the UK (page 16, link here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf … )
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- Since some are asking: the model was made by scientists at Imperial College London, led by professor Neil Ferguson - But it is well known that *all* models are imperfect. The *use* of this model as the basis for a national policy was a choice made by the UK government
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Neil Ferguson has clarified to me that the model (co-developed with UK health officials) basically hasn't changed, but inputs to the model have changed. Previous input was an intensive care rate of around 15%. Data from Italy and the UK put that closer to 30%.
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The model was created jointly with some input from UK health department officials, he adds
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Their latest update to the model looks to have helped move the UK government somewhat closer to East Asia and Western Europe in its coronavirus control approach, though large differences currently remain on mandatory closures and testing
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The new version of the model uses as input an assumption (based on coronavirus in other countries) that: "30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO)". This appears to be an average across age groups.
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Here is the modelers most recent chart on the proportions of infected who need to be hospitalised/need intensive care, based on China/Italy/UK cases.pic.twitter.com/DM9h4uxKpd
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Bottom line: UK government policy was up until last week made on the basis of a model which took as input a fatality rate for those infected with coronavirus which the modelers themselves now say was much too low
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a different disease