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hancocktom's profile
Tom Hancock
Tom Hancock
Tom Hancock
Verified account
@hancocktom

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Tom HancockVerified account

@hancocktom

China economy reporter at @business 彭博社驻华记者

Hong Kong
bloomberg.com/authors/AVBqnh…
Joined April 2009

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    Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

    Incredible detail in this FT story: up until last week, the UK was basing its coronavirus control policy on a model based on hospitalisation rates for 😲a different disease😲 with lower rates of intensive care need than coronaviruspic.twitter.com/7rJYh9sqg2

    2:47 PM - 16 Mar 2020
    • 5,068 Retweets
    • 8,199 Likes
    • 😷 (((Stuart W))) 😷 Celia W Telstar Sol Bukowski bitterness bread 🍞 toes Jeremy Howard Monacochick 3.5% Ruth Henderson
    296 replies 5,068 retweets 8,199 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        Full story by @clivecookson here:https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 …

        21 replies 397 retweets 779 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        It appears that this model, now known to have been badly wrong, had more influence on UK government disease control policy than the advice of the WHO, and the experience of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

        70 replies 1,013 retweets 2,250 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        The authors of the model now say they realised "in the last few days" that the strategy they had recommended would result in around "250,000 deaths" in the UK (page 16, link here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf … )

        35 replies 502 retweets 1,039 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        - Since some are asking: the model was made by scientists at Imperial College London, led by professor Neil Ferguson - But it is well known that *all* models are imperfect. The *use* of this model as the basis for a national policy was a choice made by the UK government

        39 replies 311 retweets 1,121 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        Neil Ferguson has clarified to me that the model (co-developed with UK health officials) basically hasn't changed, but inputs to the model have changed. Previous input was an intensive care rate of around 15%. Data from Italy and the UK put that closer to 30%.

        30 replies 208 retweets 661 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        The model was created jointly with some input from UK health department officials, he adds

        4 replies 80 retweets 291 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        Their latest update to the model looks to have helped move the UK government somewhat closer to East Asia and Western Europe in its coronavirus control approach, though large differences currently remain on mandatory closures and testing

        9 replies 109 retweets 379 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        The new version of the model uses as input an assumption (based on coronavirus in other countries) that: "30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO)". This appears to be an average across age groups.

        7 replies 86 retweets 273 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        Here is the modelers most recent chart on the proportions of infected who need to be hospitalised/need intensive care, based on China/Italy/UK cases.pic.twitter.com/DM9h4uxKpd

        15 replies 228 retweets 498 likes
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      11. Tom Hancock‏Verified account @hancocktom 16 Mar 2020

        Bottom line: UK government policy was up until last week made on the basis of a model which took as input a fatality rate for those infected with coronavirus which the modelers themselves now say was much too low

        37 replies 257 retweets 668 likes
        Show this thread
      12. End of conversation

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