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gwern's profile
𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫
𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫
𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫
@gwern

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𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet besserwisser. 𝘞𝘢𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘩𝘪 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘶! Links: https://www.reddit.com/r/gwern/ 

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. Alexey Guzey‏ @alexeyguzey Aug 17

      Haven't seen anyone note this yet: Supercentenarian age falsification before introduction of birth certificates means that gains in life expectancy are underestimated --> Actual impact of recent medical progress is bigger than we thought https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 …pic.twitter.com/WVv05SGd0t

      2 replies 15 retweets 55 likes
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    2. 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern Aug 17
      Replying to @alexeyguzey @SilverVVulpes

      Super-centenarians are like 1 in 1000 or rarer. They'd only slightly affect the overall life expectancy (like +0.02 years).

      2 replies 3 retweets 22 likes
    3. Sam Jaques‏ @sejaques Aug 17
      Replying to @gwern @alexeyguzey @SilverVVulpes

      What if supercentarians are a symptom of widespread age falsification? That would push up the measured life expectancy

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫‏ @gwern Aug 17
      Replying to @sejaques @alexeyguzey @SilverVVulpes

      Then you'd see a discontinuity in measured life expectancy. But by looking at centenarians, you are going to see a much larger effect because that's the extreme where both random error & directional fraud are maximized.

      3:38 PM - 17 Aug 2019
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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