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gwern's profile
gwern
gwern
gwern
@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

      The Bee Gees?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @gwern and

      Jose and Ozzie Canseco were both MLB pro, though clearly Jose was markedly more successful. Hmm wonder who took better steroids

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @gwern and

      Rex and Rob Ryan both coached in the NFL, surely that counts. There, three pairs.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

      I've never heard of any of those NFL/MLB people, and if you're going to go as far back as the Bee Gees, over half a century ago, the set of famous/successful people becomes way larger than just 'tens of thousands' and now there should be hundreds or thousands of identical twins.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

      The fact that you haven't heard of Jose Canseco tells me something about your interests, but is irrelevant to his fame, which is considerable. The same is true of the Bee Gees. This isn't Blue Oyster Cult. Top 100 successful bands of the 20th century by revenue, easy.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

      The point is you're selectively drawing from an ever-expanding elastic pool. How many tens or hundreds of thousands of people are there with WP or other articles if we include anyone back to the 1950s? The harder you have to search, the more you emphasize how few there are.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

      As you said, for every two twins there are 400 people who aren't twins. You haven't convinced me that twin prevalence among the successful is out of expected variance. That would take more than random sampling.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @gwern and

      It would be more accurate to say I've picked three small fields (Billboard top acts, MLB players, NFL coaches) and found twins in all three of the expected level of fame. Top 100 for Bee Gees and one Canseco, and there just aren't that many NFL coaches.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

      No. You found 3 examples, and then you drew categories around them. I rather doubt you had 3 lists of 'Billboad top acts, MLB players, NFL coaches' - definitely natural kinds! - handily classified by zygosity and luckily just sitting around to be immediately checked.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
      Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

      Another parameter that's missing and important: how many identical twins attempt the same things? It can be filled in but I'm not seeing it. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying you're failing to be persuasive.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

      Pardon me for not having spent years researching this already. 🙄 If you don't see the pattern, it's fine to just say so; don't resort to dragging up examples from over half a century ago and claim this is evidence elite identical-twin pairs are perfectly normally common.

      11:23 AM - 27 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

          You asked me to name 3 examples and are mad that I did. A counterexample here: the Winklevii, even together, aren't top-1000 rich, not even billionaires. This is not true of the Bee Gees. I don't need you to persuade me, that's optional, it's just, you haven't.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

          Point of fact: the Winklevii were billionaires, and I suspect will be again.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @elonmusk

          Point taken and prediction agreed with

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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