Recently thinking about effective sibling relationships wrt startups, e.g. @kimbal/@elonmusk & @patrickc/@collision. A natural, fully-trustworthy partner who’s easy to sync with = massive force multiplier, w/ compounding effects from childhood on?
The point is you're selectively drawing from an ever-expanding elastic pool. How many tens or hundreds of thousands of people are there with WP or other articles if we include anyone back to the 1950s? The harder you have to search, the more you emphasize how few there are.
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As you said, for every two twins there are 400 people who aren't twins. You haven't convinced me that twin prevalence among the successful is out of expected variance. That would take more than random sampling.
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It would be more accurate to say I've picked three small fields (Billboard top acts, MLB players, NFL coaches) and found twins in all three of the expected level of fame. Top 100 for Bee Gees and one Canseco, and there just aren't that many NFL coaches.
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No. You found 3 examples, and then you drew categories around them. I rather doubt you had 3 lists of 'Billboad top acts, MLB players, NFL coaches' - definitely natural kinds! - handily classified by zygosity and luckily just sitting around to be immediately checked.
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Another parameter that's missing and important: how many identical twins attempt the same things? It can be filled in but I'm not seeing it. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying you're failing to be persuasive.
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Pardon me for not having spent years researching this already.
If you don't see the pattern, it's fine to just say so; don't resort to dragging up examples from over half a century ago and claim this is evidence elite identical-twin pairs are perfectly normally common. -
You asked me to name 3 examples and are mad that I did. A counterexample here: the Winklevii, even together, aren't top-1000 rich, not even billionaires. This is not true of the Bee Gees. I don't need you to persuade me, that's optional, it's just, you haven't.
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Point of fact: the Winklevii were billionaires, and I suspect will be again.
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Point taken and prediction agreed with
End of conversation
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