Recently thinking about effective sibling relationships wrt startups, e.g. @kimbal/@elonmusk & @patrickc/@collision. A natural, fully-trustworthy partner who’s easy to sync with = massive force multiplier, w/ compounding effects from childhood on?
Certainly not. Can you name 3 more examples? You probably can't, though identical twins are 0.5% of the population, there are tens of thousands of famous or successful people you could name, so there should be easily >25 such pairs if they had no net advantages at all.
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The Bee Gees?
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Jose and Ozzie Canseco were both MLB pro, though clearly Jose was markedly more successful. Hmm wonder who took better steroids
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Rex and Rob Ryan both coached in the NFL, surely that counts. There, three pairs.
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I've never heard of any of those NFL/MLB people, and if you're going to go as far back as the Bee Gees, over half a century ago, the set of famous/successful people becomes way larger than just 'tens of thousands' and now there should be hundreds or thousands of identical twins.
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The fact that you haven't heard of Jose Canseco tells me something about your interests, but is irrelevant to his fame, which is considerable. The same is true of the Bee Gees. This isn't Blue Oyster Cult. Top 100 successful bands of the 20th century by revenue, easy.
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The point is you're selectively drawing from an ever-expanding elastic pool. How many tens or hundreds of thousands of people are there with WP or other articles if we include anyone back to the 1950s? The harder you have to search, the more you emphasize how few there are.
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As you said, for every two twins there are 400 people who aren't twins. You haven't convinced me that twin prevalence among the successful is out of expected variance. That would take more than random sampling.
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It would be more accurate to say I've picked three small fields (Billboard top acts, MLB players, NFL coaches) and found twins in all three of the expected level of fame. Top 100 for Bee Gees and one Canseco, and there just aren't that many NFL coaches.
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