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gwern's profile
gwern
gwern
gwern
@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. Mason Hartman  🏃🏻 ✂️‏ @webdevMason Oct 27

      Recently thinking about effective sibling relationships wrt startups, e.g. @kimbal/@elonmusk & @patrickc/@collision. A natural, fully-trustworthy partner who’s easy to sync with = massive force multiplier, w/ compounding effects from childhood on?

      6 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @webdevMason @kimbal and

      Forget trusting/syncing w/siblings - I've always been a little perplexed at the lack of *identical twins* among really successful people. (There's a slight health/intelligence penalty being a twin, yes, but that doesn't seem remotely enough to explain the absence.)

      9:59 AM - 27 Oct 2018
      • 1 Retweet
      • 30 Likes
      • Tristan Homsi Cryptarchist max kesin Dustin Galindo Daniel Klein Andy Matuschak Kevin Simler Mason Hartman 🏃🏻✂️ Watson Ladd
      7 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mason Hartman  🏃🏻 ✂️‏ @webdevMason Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @kimbal and

          Huh. That’s bizarre. Any theories?

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @webdevMason @kimbal and

          Not sure. Coordination is overrated? Being different in a collaboration is in fact extremely important? One twin is, despite genetics/upbringing, still too likely to be a 'weakest link' and hold the other back/be jettisoned? Twinship itself destroys creativity/risk-taking?

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

          I've previously wondered if (unconsciously) people only seek to excel if they have cues telling them that there is an empty high place they stand a good chance of doing best in, thereby gaining status in exchange for their risks. Maybe a twin never feels best enough.

          4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        5. David Deutsch‏ @DavidDeutschOxf Oct 27
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @gwern and

          If so, would that be caused by genes, or environment, or a combination? Or something else?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. Rogs‏ @ESRogs Oct 27
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf @ESYudkowsky and

          EY's theory sounds like a clear-cut environmental effect. No?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Oct 27
          Replying to @ESRogs @DavidDeutschOxf and

          My theory was environmental. Part of my trying to understand what seems to me like a “conservation of agency” phenomenon.

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        8. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Oct 27
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @ESRogs and

          If it’s true, though, we might expect some cases of accomplishment in identical twins raised apart. A slight change on the usual test that always shows that environment apparently has no influence on people.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        9. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @ESRogs and

          Yes. Offhand, I don't recall my impressions of MZA studies indicating anyone of great accomplishment. MZA samples are so tiny, though, and often lower-class, that it's very minimal evidence against the theory.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        10. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

          The Winklevii don't do it for you?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

          Certainly not. Can you name 3 more examples? You probably can't, though identical twins are 0.5% of the population, there are tens of thousands of famous or successful people you could name, so there should be easily >25 such pairs if they had no net advantages at all.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

          The Bee Gees?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @gwern and

          Jose and Ozzie Canseco were both MLB pro, though clearly Jose was markedly more successful. Hmm wonder who took better steroids

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @gwern and

          Rex and Rob Ryan both coached in the NFL, surely that counts. There, three pairs.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

          I've never heard of any of those NFL/MLB people, and if you're going to go as far back as the Bee Gees, over half a century ago, the set of famous/successful people becomes way larger than just 'tens of thousands' and now there should be hundreds or thousands of identical twins.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8.  🚀 ROU It Haunts Me To This Day  👻‏ @djinnius Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason and

          The fact that you haven't heard of Jose Canseco tells me something about your interests, but is irrelevant to his fame, which is considerable. The same is true of the Bee Gees. This isn't Blue Oyster Cult. Top 100 successful bands of the 20th century by revenue, easy.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @djinnius @webdevMason and

          The point is you're selectively drawing from an ever-expanding elastic pool. How many tens or hundreds of thousands of people are there with WP or other articles if we include anyone back to the 1950s? The harder you have to search, the more you emphasize how few there are.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 8 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. José Luis Ricón (Artir)‏ @ArtirKel Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @webdevMason

          Oh wait, do you have a handy link for the claim in the parenthesis?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @ArtirKel @webdevMason

          Not particularly. There was some Florida study I vaguely recall where the penalty was like -2 IQ points. It comes up in the twin study literature because environmentalists are always going 'maybe identical twins are *totally different* from regular people!' They're only a little.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Ciaróg Dubh Ciar-Dubh‏ @fmd4cp Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @ArtirKel @webdevMason

          It could have been more challenging for twins in other times.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @fmd4cp @ArtirKel @webdevMason

          Twins have been compared to non-twins going back a century now to like the 1920s if not earlier.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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