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gwern's profile
gwern
gwern
gwern
@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 14

      Links for stuff I may've mentioned this weekend: - Chromosome selection: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#fn6 … - selection unlimited: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#limits-to-iterated-selection-the-paradox-of-polygenicity … - Catnip: https://www.gwern.net/Catnip  - Advertising A/B test: http://www.gwern.net/Ads  - Anti-spaced-repetition: https://www.gwern.net/Statistical-notes#program-for-non-spaced-repetition-review-of-past-written-materials-for-serendipity-rediscovery-archive-revisiter …

      3 replies 7 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    2. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16

      - why no better nicotines? https://www.reddit.com/r/researchchemicals/comments/4nsniu/why_no_nicotinic_rcs/ … https://www.reddit.com/r/Nootropics/comments/4ojwhr/targeting_nicotinic_receptors_for_nootropics/ … - why are math proofs usually wrong but results right? https://www.gwern.net/The-Existential-Risk-of-Mathematical-Error … - why Gmail won't offer spam-filter-as-a-service: https://www.gwern.net/Complement  - LSD u-dosing doesn't work: http://www.gwern.net/LSD-microdosing 

      4 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16

      The most common error in technological forecasting: conjunctive vs disjunctive reasoning: https://www.gwern.net//Complexity-vs-AI#technology-forecasting-errors-functional-fixedness-in-assuming-dependencies …

      2 replies 4 retweets 12 likes
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    4. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 18

      In the longevity session, I mentioned large reductions in mortality risk yield few years of life expectancy, & also because Gompertz curve, you probably don't want to take any life-extension supplement before your 40s: my calculations sketching this out: https://www.gwern.net/Longevity 

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    5. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 26

      Explanation of why I said CRISPR/embryo selection/cloning are overrated, and massive embryo selection/iterated embryo selection/genome synthesis are underrated: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#overview-of-major-approaches …

      2 replies 9 retweets 17 likes
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    6. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
      Replying to @gwern @salonium

      RE: CRISPR, off-targets are massively overrated as problems, on-target low efficiency still a big problem and not sure if we will ever solve it

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
      Replying to @SilverVVulpes @salonium

      Being overrated is, unfortunately, a major barrier to adoption on its own and so something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      6:43 AM - 27 Oct 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Siberian Fox Derek
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @salonium

          It's just maddening coz you*could*give the final embryo something like 80% lower risk of alzh or heart disease and it would be just*a cheap edit massively worth it in $/QALYs. Obvs things like the George Church list far from current capacity and synthesis would render it obsolete

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
          Replying to @SilverVVulpes @gwern @salonium

          but it's basically the opposite of the common media coverage. "CRISPR causes tons of unintended mutations" tons of headlines for n=3 mice that counted sibling differences as CRISPR mutations, took one year to retract despite key criticisms being made the next day

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 27
          Replying to @SilverVVulpes @salonium

          There are more recent results showing other nasty off-target mutations, IIRC.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
          Replying to @gwern @salonium

          that's just the most egregious example. Studies showing off-target mutations don't beat https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16526 … that showed one in ~3000 editions or https://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1007503 … that didn't find any. Other recent headline catching studies are stuff like upregulating p53 (if serious..

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
          Replying to @SilverVVulpes @gwern @salonium

          only relevant for ex vivo theraphy with edited stem cells/T cells) or stuff like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0380-z … https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.4192 … that is on target. What I mean is that you get double-digit % efficiency in semi-suspicious Chinese embryo editing studies...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes Oct 27
          Replying to @SilverVVulpes @gwern @salonium

          or things like https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/09/01/393231 … giving <1% Efficiency can get higher than 66% or close to 100% or have this very low results, some of the is Cas9 vs. other proteins, sometimes it's sequence to edit, sometimes protein-binding to the DNA, etc. Might improve, might not

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        8. End of conversation

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