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gwern's profile
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gwern
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@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. nic carter‏ @nic__carter Oct 25

      You know things are bad when scientists are suggesting that we latently medicate everyone with antidepressants via our drinking waterhttps://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/10/24/18010592/future-perfect-podcast-lithium-drinking-water-suicide …

      61 replies 96 retweets 373 likes
      Show this thread
    2. JZ‏ @jzlegion Oct 25
      Replying to @nic__carter

      "Maybe a state could randomly add lithium to some of its reservoirs but not others, or, conversely, a high-lithium state could try removing it from the water." Wow this seems like a great idea.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 25
      Replying to @jzlegion @nic__carter

      They already do that, accidentally. Different processes remove different amounts, the groundwater concentration is already changing every day and from location to location and year to year. The only difference is that you are totally ignorant of any harms you already suffer.

      9:07 AM - 25 Oct 2018
      • 4 Likes
      • Selective Pressure Britt Lewis Evergreen Bear JZ
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ace of Swords‏ @AnAceofSwords Oct 26
          Replying to @gwern @jzlegion @nic__carter

          this is not an argument for adding more on purpose, though.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 26
          Replying to @AnAceofSwords @jzlegion @nic__carter

          Sure it is. And on practical grounds, adding is better than subtracting for experiments: typically much easier to implement and creates larger effect sizes. It's also the more justifiable one ethically: available evidence points to it helping, and subtracting hurting.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Ace of Swords‏ @AnAceofSwords Oct 26
          Replying to @gwern @jzlegion @nic__carter

          I think mass medicating populations is unethical. We might just have to agree to disagree on that one.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 26
          Replying to @AnAceofSwords @jzlegion @nic__carter

          And I think standing by & potentially depriving entire populations of critical micronutrients, literally driving them into insanity and death, without doing the simplest experiment indistinguishable from what Nature is already inflicting on people to find out if so, is unethical.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Ace of Swords‏ @AnAceofSwords Oct 26
          Replying to @gwern @jzlegion @nic__carter

          Frankly I think it's a BIT melodramatic to say that not adding more lithium to the water supply is "literally driving them into insanity and death" 😂😂😂

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 26
          Replying to @AnAceofSwords @jzlegion @nic__carter

          I'm not sure why. I mean, that's literally what the claim is. Quite literally, that's what the possible causal effects would be.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Ace of Swords‏ @AnAceofSwords Oct 26
          Replying to @gwern @jzlegion @nic__carter

          Pretty sure I won't go insane for lack of enough lithium in my water. Mlso, maybe there's an underlying cause for all this depression we should be treating rather than mass-medicating everyone. Just a thought. Medication without treatment of root causes is useless.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 26
          Replying to @AnAceofSwords @jzlegion @nic__carter

          The 'root cause' is often just genes or infections or nutrient deficiency. There was no 'root cause' for goiters/retardation/rickets: the 'medication' of adding iodine or iron or vitamin D to random stuff like salt to 'mass-medicate' was in fact the least useless thing possible.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        10. 2 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. JZ‏ @jzlegion Oct 25
          Replying to @gwern @nic__carter

          Interesting, I didn't think of that. Do you know how much change in lithium or other chemicals these processes cause?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 25
          Replying to @jzlegion @nic__carter

          The differences just from natural groundwater variation are enormous on their own. You can easily get anywhere from ~0 to 0.54mg/l, to take Fajardo et al 2018's Texas range (analogous to going from distilled water to fancy mineral waters).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. JZ‏ @jzlegion Oct 25
          Replying to @gwern @nic__carter

          Could this lithium experiment be run just by looking at historical lithium changes and historical suicide rates?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. nic carter‏ @nic__carter Oct 25
          Replying to @jzlegion @gwern

          I think that's exactly the methodology of the study quoted in the article, albeit with the variance being geographic not historical

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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