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gwern's profile
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gwern
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@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. Amjad Masad‏ @amasad Oct 17

      Despite the world getting more urban, global, and connected we still make much of our decisions as if we're living in the ancestral village: who to hire, buy from, and sell to are all based on personal connections. I guess it must be so because of adverse selection. (And Lindy?)

      3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
    2. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 17
      Replying to @amasad

      How much is just miscalibrated risk? I have rarely been burned taking risks or trusting people I know from online, yet seeing them in person helps even more despite apparently conveying little or no new information. Perhaps people are overly risk-averse: http://www.gwern.net/Sunk-cost#fn58 

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Amjad Masad‏ @amasad Oct 17
      Replying to @gwern

      Interesting. Personally, I've been burnt so many times by adverse selection: buying lemons, hiring people that looked good on paper*, and taking money from bad investors. Going through my network never failed me. * GitHub/@replit/@triple_byte are great at filtering out lemons

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 17
      Replying to @amasad @replit @triple_byte

      I think it's a little more like: do you have some pre-existing baseline on them or did you select them out or pick them at random? Adverse selection isn't such an issue, but people are still risk-averse to ping someone they know weakly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 17
      Replying to @gwern @amasad and

      It's a little like the advice to lost children: "if you get lost, pick a random stranger and ask them to help you; but avoid anyone who seeks you out because they might be a bad person". Lost children probably wait too long to ask because they're afraid of even random strangers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Amjad Masad‏ @amasad Oct 17
      Replying to @gwern @replit @triple_byte

      I see. Sounds about right. Good VCs almost never send cold emails to founders because good founders come to them. Good engineers are almost never on the market coz they get headhunted before they enter the market. Lacking other signals getting a cold email is a negative signal.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 17
      Replying to @amasad @replit @triple_byte

      Yep. One of the best software engineers I know was recently fired; he went from the office to a bar for a post-firing drink, and had a new job before he walked out. (The manager heard he was probably going to be fired and was in ambush.)

      1:54 PM - 17 Oct 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Amjad Masad
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Amjad Masad‏ @amasad Oct 17
          Replying to @gwern @replit @triple_byte

          That's why startups are in the business of discovering talent. One of the best engineers I worked with we hired at 18 and 17. Have you seen the movie Moneyball? It's a true story about a baseball team winning big by finding undervalued players (typically weird misfits)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 17
          Replying to @amasad @replit @triple_byte

          I've heard so much about _Moneyball_ at this point that actually reading/watching it feels otiose.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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