okay one of the key realizations about probabilities is that *sometimes unlikely things happen*
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@Lispegistus response with permission the point is that any individual unlikely thing is unlikely (as long as we've correctly judged it to be unlikely) however! it is very likely, at any given time, that something unlikely is happeningpic.twitter.com/exYTuL4kWG
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gwern Retweeted gwern
Basically, Littlewood's law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_law … I think about this in the context of news, which is biased towards reporting about the most unlikely things which happen worldwide, which since the world is getting bigger...:https://twitter.com/gwern/status/981643199524556801 …
gwern added,
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