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gwern's profile
gwern
gwern
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@gwern

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gwern

@gwern

Writer, independent researcher, Internet 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘳

Present day. Present time. (Ahahaha!)
gwern.net
Joined November 2008

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    1. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 14

      Links for stuff I may've mentioned this weekend: - Chromosome selection: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#fn6 … - selection unlimited: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#limits-to-iterated-selection-the-paradox-of-polygenicity … - Catnip: https://www.gwern.net/Catnip  - Advertising A/B test: http://www.gwern.net/Ads  - Anti-spaced-repetition: https://www.gwern.net/Statistical-notes#program-for-non-spaced-repetition-review-of-past-written-materials-for-serendipity-rediscovery-archive-revisiter …

      3 replies 7 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    2. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16

      - why no better nicotines? https://www.reddit.com/r/researchchemicals/comments/4nsniu/why_no_nicotinic_rcs/ … https://www.reddit.com/r/Nootropics/comments/4ojwhr/targeting_nicotinic_receptors_for_nootropics/ … - why are math proofs usually wrong but results right? https://www.gwern.net/The-Existential-Risk-of-Mathematical-Error … - why Gmail won't offer spam-filter-as-a-service: https://www.gwern.net/Complement  - LSD u-dosing doesn't work: http://www.gwern.net/LSD-microdosing 

      4 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
      Replying to @gwern

      Your microdose was too small. I don't know what the correct dose is for you but there's a wide range between imperceptible and hallucinogenic that gives noticeable effects on mood. You should have experimented to find the correct dose before doing the experiment.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
      Replying to @Minthos_

      And yet, lack of sequential dose-finding experimental design somehow doesn't stop almost all microdosers from immediately reporting wide-ranging benefits from unmeasured & variable doses nor are there any priors for knife-edge dose-response curves like suggested.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
      Replying to @gwern

      So based on nothing you decide it's all bunk because your own experiment was bunk. I'm all for reporting negative results and I like the way you did your experiment but now you're just pulling conclusions out of your ass. You're no better than them.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
      Replying to @Minthos_

      And what should we call pulling out post hoc excuses to save the appearances like 'oh you just didn't use the right dose'?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
      Replying to @gwern

      Save appearance? I'm just calling you out on your hypocrisy. You identified a dosage (guesstimated to around 8 ug or so) that had no measurable effect on you. You identified another dosage (150 ug or so) that had a strong effect on you.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
      Replying to @Minthos_ @gwern

      Somewhere in between is a dosage that will have mild effects on you. You didn't care to find out. Instead you bombastically claim that microdosing is bullshit and anyone who claims otherwise is tripping.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
      Replying to @Minthos_

      I claim that the prior is minuscule, the existing evidence in favor of it is bullshit which no one wants to test & fully explained by standard biases, and the highest-quality datapoint so far strongly favors the null.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
      Replying to @gwern

      So in the absence of evidence you trust your bias. Excellent science.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
      Replying to @Minthos_

      I disagree it's bias. We know from vast experience most chemicals do nothing, have reasonable dose-response curves, there are few to no 'microdoses' for other drugs, and so on. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

      10:22 AM - 16 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
          Replying to @gwern

          It's not extraordinary to claim that a small dose of LSD has a small effect. What I want to know is how those effects differ in quantity and quality from the effects of a normal dose. You can't answer that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
          Replying to @Minthos_

          Indeed, it is not extraordinary. What is extraordinary is claiming that a small dose can have a large effect on daily functioning, that even smaller dose differences can make or break this effect, and that this effect is radically different than the effect of large doses...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
          Replying to @gwern

          LSD is pretty extraordinary. People have reported unexpected results and you have dismissed them without investigating. Of course some of the claims are bullshit. But are all of them bullshit? You have no basis for calling bullshit because you have no evidence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
          Replying to @Minthos_

          Lack of evidence for something extremely improbable is excellent reason to justify dismissing it. Ordinary claims require only ordinary evidence, and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. LSD microdosing, if proponents are right, would be unprecedented.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
          Replying to @gwern

          I have seen a lot of anecdotes from people claiming some kind of effect. I too have experienced some kind of effect. That is indisputable. The only defensible position you can take is to question what the effects are. Instead you dismiss it as "there are no effects". Wtf?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. gwern‏ @gwern Oct 16
          Replying to @Minthos_

          /rolls eyes Fine. 'There are no effects besides those driven by publication bias, selective recall of data (see recent LSD microdosing paper!), expectancy effects, overly large doses in the perceptual range, & other effects of no particular interest & not the claimed mechanism.'

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Custom Wetware‏ @Minthos_ Oct 16
          Replying to @gwern

          Replace "There are no" with "There is no evidence for" and we have a deal.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. End of conversation

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