Links for stuff I may've mentioned this weekend: - Chromosome selection: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#fn6 … - selection unlimited: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#limits-to-iterated-selection-the-paradox-of-polygenicity … - Catnip: https://www.gwern.net/Catnip - Advertising A/B test: http://www.gwern.net/Ads - Anti-spaced-repetition: https://www.gwern.net/Statistical-notes#program-for-non-spaced-repetition-review-of-past-written-materials-for-serendipity-rediscovery-archive-revisiter …
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The most common error in technological forecasting: conjunctive vs disjunctive reasoning: https://www.gwern.net//Complexity-vs-AI#technology-forecasting-errors-functional-fixedness-in-assuming-dependencies …
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In the longevity session, I mentioned large reductions in mortality risk yield few years of life expectancy, & also because Gompertz curve, you probably don't want to take any life-extension supplement before your 40s: my calculations sketching this out: https://www.gwern.net/Longevity
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Explanation of why I said CRISPR/embryo selection/cloning are overrated, and massive embryo selection/iterated embryo selection/genome synthesis are underrated: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#overview-of-major-approaches …
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Your microdose was too small. I don't know what the correct dose is for you but there's a wide range between imperceptible and hallucinogenic that gives noticeable effects on mood. You should have experimented to find the correct dose before doing the experiment.
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And yet, lack of sequential dose-finding experimental design somehow doesn't stop almost all microdosers from immediately reporting wide-ranging benefits from unmeasured & variable doses nor are there any priors for knife-edge dose-response curves like suggested.
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So based on nothing you decide it's all bunk because your own experiment was bunk. I'm all for reporting negative results and I like the way you did your experiment but now you're just pulling conclusions out of your ass. You're no better than them.
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And what should we call pulling out post hoc excuses to save the appearances like 'oh you just didn't use the right dose'?
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Save appearance? I'm just calling you out on your hypocrisy. You identified a dosage (guesstimated to around 8 ug or so) that had no measurable effect on you. You identified another dosage (150 ug or so) that had a strong effect on you.
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Which are supposed to be about different things. Having no effect is exactly what the standard model 'LSD just makes you hallucinate' predicts. It's *not* what microdosers predict, who claim entirely different regime of effects in the sub-perceptual area.
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I had never read the modus tollens/ponen piece before. It was really interesting
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I don't think I linked anything about that... Are you referring to http://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets#modus-tollens-vs-modus-ponens … or something else?
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No, you didn’t. It was linked to in the article about mathematical mistakes.
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loved reading through the LSD u-dosing post, solid work! I'd love to replicate but I know I'd be hard-pressed to follow through and execute it, so glad I can leech some info from you ^^
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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