In case you are wondering how the COVID IFR was calculated, there is an entire thread here:https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1262453620735385605?s=20 …
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Being alive means there is a risk that you will die in every year of your life. Normally we don't think about this because the probability is very small. It turns out that even if you are infected with COVID, your increased risk to die vs normal is not very large at all.pic.twitter.com/lrQnTuHYRS
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However by locking down and making people afraid of going to the hospital we worseneed the probabilities for the 70% of deaths we have every year, at least during the last 2 months.pic.twitter.com/rgNLSUFK68
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80% of deaths in Canada. And it was 99% preventable. We just went full lockdown so we didn't hurt HR's feelings
End of conversation
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Very useful in order to see the perspective of things
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12% actually seems quite high to me....
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12% higher than 0.16% From 0.16% -> 0.18% Also, please tell why you focus yourself on the 0.02% risk as opposed to the 0.16% risk from all other causes?
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What you're discussing is the concept of absolute risk (often discussed in comparison to relative risk). IFR is your probability of death *if you contract the virus*. Since risk of infection is not 100%, absolute risk is in fact lower.https://www.iwh.on.ca/what-researchers-mean-by/absolute-and-relative-risk …
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Could you compare that to the added risk of death from contracting a seasonal influenza?
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