imo the west kinda blew its load early on sanctions. Now I’m not sure what we’ll do if Putin carpet bombs Kyiv. And if that’s the case, then why wouldn’t he?
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This whole war is the result of premature ejac on the west’s part.
Saying “he’s gonna invade, and we’re gonna sanction” two weeks ahead eliminated the biggest uncertainty on Putin’s end.
Told him exactly what *wasn’t* gonna happen.
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Nahhhh he knew we wouldn’t fight him physically for Ukraine
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I don’t believe he did. Trump seems to have had no trouble preserving a doubt.
In any case we took it from 70% or 80% or whatever the odds of no direct intervention were in his mind all the way to a flat 100%.
Big difference given the stakes.