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grepmeded's profile
GrepMed
GrepMed
GrepMed
@grepmeded

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GrepMed

@grepmeded

Image Based Medical Reference: Sharing crowd-sourced checklists, algorithms, decision aids, #PhysicalExam #POCUS, and more - by @GeraldMDMD + @k00bideh

Sacramento, CA
grepmed.com
Joined March 2018

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    1. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      However, I'm flabbergasted that yesterday afternoon, a group including several of the same authors circulated a press release describing new results for a similar study in LA County, without any accompanying technical report and before correcting the Santa Clara County preprint.

      10 replies 121 retweets 734 likes
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    2. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      I can only surmise that the numbers in the LAC press release are either still using the same muddled calculations, or using an unspecified new method that hasn't been described publicly and is very different from the one they described in the SCC preprint.

      4 replies 38 retweets 367 likes
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    3. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      Whichever is the case, before journalists publicize any more results from this group, they should know that the confidence intervals reported in both studies have no known statistical provenance as of now. The calculations are not questionable; they are either wrong or unknown.

      6 replies 150 retweets 730 likes
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    4. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      What should we believe while we wait for a defensible analysis from the authors? In my opinion, the analysis suggested by @graduatedescent using Fisher's exact test should be treated as authoritative until the authors are ready to give a competing account.https://bit.ly/2XR0pdL 

      3 replies 76 retweets 434 likes
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    5. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      @graduatedescent shows the SCC data are too noisy even to rule out the possibility that all the positives are false positives. Simply put, the difference between 50 heads in 3330 flips (SCC residents) and 2 heads in 371 flips (negative controls*) isn't statistically significant.

      7 replies 60 retweets 445 likes
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    6. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      The authors have demographic information they have not yet shared, so it's conceivable a more refined analysis will pin down the prevalence more precisely. My point is that right now, as far as I know, no such analysis exists.

      1 reply 21 retweets 259 likes
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    7. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      Note that beyond the formal statistical analysis there are other good reasons to be skeptical of the study, which have been pointed out publicly by @graduatedescent, @nataliexdean, @StatModeling, and many others.

      5 replies 32 retweets 259 likes
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    8. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      Will Fithian Retweeted John Cherian

      Thanks also to @jjcherian for his perceptive tweets about the paper that piqued my interest in the first place.https://twitter.com/jjcherian/status/1251272333177880576?s=20 …

      Will Fithian added,

      John Cherian @jjcherian
      Ok, so what's wrong with the confidence intervals in this preprint? Well they publish a confidence interval on the specificity of the test that runs between 98.3% and 99.9%, but only 1.5% of all the tests came back positive! 1/
      Show this thread
      4 replies 36 retweets 308 likes
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    9. Will Fithian‏ @wfithian Apr 21
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      *The "negative controls" are blood samples from people who were known not to have been infected with COVID-19. The supplement I refer to can be found at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/suppl/2020/04/17/2020.04.14.20062463.DC1/2020.04.14.20062463-1.pdf …

      35 replies 23 retweets 216 likes
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    10. Elsie‏ @notalemming70 Apr 21
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      Replying to @wfithian

      Can you explain this in layman’s terms what is wrong with their data?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      GrepMed‏ @grepmeded Apr 21
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      Replying to @notalemming70 @wfithian

      everything depends on the unproven specificity of their test characteristics. Only 1.5% positive tests in their sample. Unless specificity >>> 98.5% then it's within the realm of statistical possibility that many/all of the positives were actually false positives

      4:45 PM - 21 Apr 2020
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      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Elsie‏ @notalemming70 Apr 21
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          Replying to @grepmeded @wfithian

          Thank you

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. GrepMed‏ @grepmeded Apr 21
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          Replying to @notalemming70 @wfithian

          thanks- in my heart im praying the authors are correct in their projections but it seems irresponsible that they’ve been making the media circuit before even basic peer review

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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