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grepmeded's profile
GrepMed
GrepMed
GrepMed
@grepmeded

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GrepMed

@grepmeded

Image Based Medical Reference: Sharing crowd-sourced checklists, algorithms, decision aids, #PhysicalExam #POCUS, and more - by @GeraldMDMD + @k00bideh

Sacramento, CA
grepmed.com
Joined March 2018

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    1. Balaji S. Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis Apr 17
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      A new 2300 word peer review of the Stanford paper. I'm glad they did a serosurvey but am skeptical of the conclusion because: - test may have high false positive rate - sample may be enriched for COVID-19 - study implies faster spread than past pandemicshttps://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25 …

      63 replies 176 retweets 471 likes
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    2. Scott Swingle‏ @SwingleScott Apr 17
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      Replying to @balajis

      Good write up! When I was reading the study earlier I was also concerned with their analysis of the false positive rate. They even say "a specificity of 99.5% (95 CI 98.3-99.9%)" - so their CI upper bound on false positive rate is 1.7%, higher than the 1.5% positive rate... 1/n

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Scott Swingle‏ @SwingleScott Apr 17
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      Replying to @SwingleScott @balajis

      Their upper confidence bound on the false positive rate is higher than the actual positive rate they detected! So their lower confidence bound on the final seroprevalence rate should be 0%. But somehow they work it to be 1.8% instead. Statistically they did something wrong 2/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Scott Swingle‏ @SwingleScott Apr 17
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      Replying to @SwingleScott @balajis

      Finally, they use their seroprevalence results to estimate "an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%". But NYC has reported 7890 confirmed deaths and 4309 additional probable ones. NYC has population 8.4 million. 3/n

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Scott Swingle‏ @SwingleScott Apr 17
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      Replying to @SwingleScott @balajis

      So even if you assumed every person in NYC already had it, and no more die from it, that'd be an infection fatality rate of 0.145%... Clearly they are way off here. 4/4

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      GrepMed‏ @grepmeded Apr 17
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      Replying to @mathbugz @balajis

      yes. this should be added to the peer review- their data is incompatible from what we already know to be true from NYC- 0.14% is absolute floor for IFR, even if 100% were infected.

      5:54 PM - 17 Apr 2020
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      • Scott Swingle Balaji S. Srinivasan
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Daniel Steinberg‏ @DanielSingerS Apr 17
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          Replying to @grepmeded @SwingleScott @balajis

          Eh not really. NYC had overwhelmed hospitals. We would expect the death rate to be higher there.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Scott Swingle‏ @SwingleScott Apr 17
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          Replying to @DanielSingerS @grepmeded @balajis

          Isn't the fatality rate with overwhelmed hospitals the important number to consider for policy? Besides which, many more will die in NYC, and no where close to 100% have been infected, so the fatality rate is clearly far higher.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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