So many debates are like this. 1) Common sense argument “Wear masks to stop spread of coughing disease” 2) Pseudo-clever argument “Oh but then people would take more risks” 3) Exasperated scientific defense of common sense “Second order doesn’t usually outweigh first order!”https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1247615718750924811 …
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Replying to @balajis
I'm not anti mask, but we should certainly watch the trend. If 90% stay home before the order, and 80% do so after, masks must be >50% effective at reducing Ro. A scarf is only about that good in a lab, ignoring secondary transfers (like removing mask after hand washing).
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they should certainly be mandated where all of us are forced to congregate: ie grocery stores, food handlers etc.
2:31 PM - 7 Apr 2020
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Risk-compensation is not a common thing at all! Needs evidence.