4) The death toll will be massive Let’s take some comparatively optimistic estimates made by experts: UK Population: 66 million Infection rate: 60% Fatality rate: 1% Deaths due to corona: 396,000.
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396,000 deaths is not the risk the government runs if its cunning plan fails; it IS the plan. Let that sink in. And then bear two further things in mind: • The fatality rate could turn out to be much higher… • …especially if the NHS gets overwhelmed.
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But, you ask, isn’t the spread of corona inevitable at this point? Perhaps. But playing for time can still make a massive difference: • It reduces the risk of overburdening the NHS • It buys time for scientists to develop a vaccine or antiviral drugs
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5) The government’s plan is based on an unproven assumption The assumption behind the government’s cunning plan is that people who recover from corona will be immune. But will they be? Hopefully so. But the experts just don’t know for sure.
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Some experts say that recovering from the corona virus once will make you immune. Other experts believe that it won’t. Who’s right?
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And yet, the British government is gambling with lives on the assumption that its bet will turn out right.https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection-get-covid-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html …5 replies 45 retweets 135 likesShow this thread -
A final point: A lot of the press and some of my friends have been saying: But Boris Johnson is following expert advice! Well, he’s following the advice of *a few* experts. But as any non-expert can see, that advice is clashing with the advice of A LOT of other experts.
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After Johnson announced his cunning plan, the current Director of the WHO said: “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”
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Yascha Mounk Retweeted Anthony Costello
Anthony Costello, Director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of London and a former senior official at the WHO, was also unconvinced. As was Roy Anderson, a Professor of Epidemiology at Imperial College. https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1237866513693937665 …https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425635380432897 …
Yascha Mounk added,
Anthony Costello @globalhlthtwit7. On the precautionary principle shouldn’t we go all-out to snuff this UK epidemic out, with national mobilisation at all levels, using all possible preventive measures (whether evidence is strong, uncertain or weak) and worry about herd immunity when we have more evidence?Show this thread2 replies 29 retweets 90 likesShow this thread -
And, you know, all the governments that are now scrambling to increase social distancing presumably have their own experts who are telling them to do this as quickly as humanly possible. I mean, the consensus on this is so strong that even Donald Trump is starting to follow it!
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I dearly hope I'm wrong about how misguided the British strategy is. I dearly hope we are all wrong about what we'll be facing very soon. But it's time for the British public to think for themselves, not to blithely entrust their lives in Boris Johnson's cunning plan. [End]
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American doctor here- I’m really afraid for you guys 
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