Shenzhen now has 196 cases of 2019-nCoV, 24 of those in my neighborhood. Statistically, the virus is not a huge risk- but panic leading to shortages and unrest is so I'm going to delay my return a few weeks. All masks seem sold out in Bangkok (Boots, Watsons, local pharmacies.)
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R2.5 means that in a mathematical model each person will likely infact two others, not accounting for any other factors like basic hygiene.https://youtu.be/wfPF6_KRR_U
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FYI. The R value of the 1918 flu was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8, 2009 swine flu was 1.4 and 1.6. Yes hygiene is a big factor, but an R approaching 3 is a big deal especially when you bake in asymptotic infectiousness and a cultural habit not to cover ones mouth when

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All diseases spread exponentially.
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But to what power?
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Hal Turner said it was an R4... is he trying too hard
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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What's the mortality rate treated v.s..untreated?
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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