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Another massive ON rally. RTH open up here would revisit ATH and erase most of Jan monthly excess. With such a sharp recovery from last weeks weekly OTF stop, we need to monitor for potential inventory imbalances, but nonetheless, we have odds for continuation
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IT seems the mkt got too short yest after repeated failed efforts to take the morning low. ON probed lower and immediately went back up. Today there is a potential gap open > the 2-day range with a weak structure at 3292.75. I would say odds are pointing uppic.twitter.com/i3Cks4dT6K
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(1/2) Having said that, leaving a 1 tick gap untouched at 3212.25 with 3 daily lows makes that structure extremely vulnerable shall the mkt decides to re-visit
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(1/2) Towards the close on Friday mkt saw a strong response buying from the 3212 gap. It was month and week end ahead of a critical Sunday open (China coming back from Holiday. I will look at RTH to assess continuation of that buying (acceptance< ON denotes change)
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Yesterday saw a tremendous amount of short covering with potential new buying as the mkt got some relief regarding the Wuhan virus (inv imbalance visible before). Focus is on assessing validation of the late spike, with acceptance < ON denoting change
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so it may be advisable to wait for mkt behavior around key major references. Potential big gap at the open (if it holds) and prominent ON PoC gives good odds of at least trying to probe the 3033 area
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(1/2) Long accumulation seen ON and early wed session was disposed after the FOMC with a very weak close. We've seen continuation ON towards the 3033 Monday low. Its important to keep in mind that these sharp swings could generate inv imbalances very quickly
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Probe lower could not generate acceptance below yest settlement
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ON found no continuation to the liquidation seen at yest close, prompting a probe higher. Prominent ON PoC within Friday's value. Acceptance below yest settlement would expose upside weakness. FOMC later today could keep the mkt quiet for the morning
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Yesterday saw continuation of the weak sentiment from the Sunday open. However, lack of continuation on the weak close and ON may suggest an inv imbalance that could force a retracement today. Failure to re-visit the prominent ON PoC would denote positive change
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Mkt weakness evident in Asian and EU session on coronavirus pandemic fears. Potential for a massive gap at the open with a lot of forces in play (margin calls, etc). Let it settle before committing
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1PM CT and the PoC is only 3-wide. Maybe the mkt came down too far too fast
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(2/2) My focus is now on assessing value relative to yest upper dist, keeping in mind that the way it went up seemed very emotional (3 dist without significant value/PoC migrating). Closing yest multiple dist denotes change
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(1/2) Weekly OTF up has been stopped with the mkt apparently attempting to find balance >3300 (now a 6-day range). Looks like mkt got too short attempting to close the 3300 gap inducing some covering late in the session
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Yest mkt failed above the 3-day range, with healthy excess at ATH and a weak close near the lows. Odds are good that at least we probe the range low (3316) although the ON seems to have difficulty progressing lower (inv imbalance?). Acceptance > ON denotes change
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Judging by the inability to extend below yesterday's morning low later in the session with some higher lows towards the close, it seems the inv got too short which is also consistent with the overnight P-shaped profile suggesting covering
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Negative sentiment during Asian and Eur sessions increasing the chances of closing at least one of 2 gaps >3300. Although doing so will stop the 6-day OTF, LTF still looks supporting the upside. Value and acceptance will be key to assess mkt directional bias if any
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not extending towards the ATH could mean the mkt is too long....
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