Courtesy of @GidMK, here's a good reanalysis of the @BIRDGroupUK meta-analysis of #ivermectin for #COVID19. I will quibble with the conclusion a little, though. These data are very consistent with the conclusion that ivermectin most likely does not work.https://gidmk.medium.com/does-ivermectin-work-for-covid-19-1166126c364a …
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Replying to @gorskon @BIRDGroupUK
I think it's fair to say that they're consistent with ivermectin being everything from a terrible poison to a useful medication, which is why I reckon the question remains unanswered!
2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @BIRDGroupUK
Not from a Bayesian perspective. The prior probability for
#ivermectin is very low given the pharmacokinetics problem, in which the concentration that produces antiviral effects in vitro is many times higher than what can be achieved in vivo at standard doses.3 replies 2 retweets 18 likes -
Basically, for
#ivermectin to work against#SARSCoV2, there has to be a mechanism different from any of the antiviral mechanisms thus proposed. Possible, but unlikely, hence my assessment of low prior probability.2 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
Basically a meta-analysis result like your reanalysis + low prior probability = highly likely that the drug does not work.
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