But that still means you're 50% scientifically sure it didn't come from a lab with a personal (less scientific) hypothesis set to 49%.
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The... inventor of mRNA, huh?
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I hate it when people weaponize uncertainty in science, as has been done with the lab-leak hypothesis. The responsible and measured response of "I don't know" being distorted into conspiracies.
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Epistemic humility would have greatly behooved Daszak and Andersen, the two scientists who were instrumental in unscientifically denouncing lab-leak origin as a conspiracy theory. There is no dispositive evidence of either origin hypothesis.
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A couple of excellent episodes of TWIV recently. #760 & #762 https://twitter.com/profvrr/status/1399020747914420224?s=21 …https://twitter.com/profvrr/status/1399020747914420224 …
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Hey David - check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3iKF9sblAw … Newest studies indicate the SARS-CoV2 likely evolved from several recombination events of viruses out there in nature.
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Unless the lab in Wuhan had a recombinant virus in the lab (a possibility, but at this point very unlikely) closer relatives of SARS-CoV2 (than what we've currently sequenced) are likely to be found in horseshoe bats.
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“It was made/altered in a lab” is absolutely conspiracy theory. There would be evidence that we do not see. “It was natural, but this outbreak came after it escaped from a lab”, I’m not so sure. I don’t know how different the data would be if this was true.
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