This is the most hilarious invocation of Bayes theorem I've ever seen. I'm particularly amused by how he picks his priors to plug into the formula, apparently not realizing that they're all arbitrary and based on HIS assumptions that are likely not valid.
https://twitter.com/dgeroratings/status/1401187818366513154 …
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Replying to @gorskon
Well, Wikipedia! QED! Yeah, using the epidemic threshold ignores the millions of other zoonotic spillover events that petered out on their own. But, I’m a simple economist what do I know?pic.twitter.com/SEBa7xr8zk
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
Replying to @Balgor11
And both were nearly 50 years ago, but he assumes a uniform yearly probability over the last few decades, I bet...
12:01 PM - 7 Jun 2021
1 reply
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