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gorskon's profile
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
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@gorskon

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David Gorski, MD, PhDVerified account

@gorskon

Surgeon/scientist promoting science in medicine and exposing quackery. Editor of Science-Based Medicine. My opinions do NOT represent those of my employers.

Michigan, USA
sciencebasedmedicine.org
Joined October 2009

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    1. David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon May 31

      David Gorski, MD, PhD Retweeted Amy Maxmen, PhD

      Yup. #LabLeakTheory has already entered the realm of conspiracy theory. True, more "reasonable" people are trying to avoid the "plandemic" angle to #lableak, but the evidence hasn't changed in over a year.https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1398367486790160384 …

      David Gorski, MD, PhD added,

      Amy Maxmen, PhDVerified account @amymaxmen
      On weaponized uncertainty in science. The #lableak may be our latest case study. By @jetjocko @WIREDScience https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-lab-leak-theory-weaponized-uncertainty/ … pic.twitter.com/cHRlFAUqZc
      7 replies 5 retweets 21 likes
    2. Sam R-A‏ @samziz May 31
      Replying to @gorskon

      Is it? I’m not a conspiracy theorist or OR a virologist/epidemiologist (or even a scientist), so correct me if I’m wrong. But is it not *coincidental* at least that it emerged in a city with one of the few labs in the world (IIRC) doing gain of function research on coronaviruses?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Sam R-A‏ @samziz May 31
      Replying to @samziz @gorskon

      OR*, not ‘or OR’ 🤦‍♂️

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Sam R-A‏ @samziz May 31
      Replying to @samziz @gorskon

      To be clear, I am *not* suggesting it was a ‘plandemic’ or anything like that. That’s unbelievably fucking stupid. Just that, as far as I can tell, it doesn’t seem impossible that it leaked from the lab instead of the meat market

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. matthew stillman‏ @stillmansays May 31
      Replying to @samziz @gorskon

      Just because it’s possible does not mean it’s of equal likelihood. Zoonotic spillover is super common. Lab leak is not only incredibly rare but in this case only has speculation behind it. No actual evidence.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Sam R-A‏ @samziz Jun 3
      Replying to @stillmansays @gorskon

      Sorry, I missed this and I only just noticed it b/c someone liked my initial tweet. I take your point but surely you’d ‘update your priors’ based on the fact that it emerged in Wuhan specifically, one of single-digit places where a lab leak was possible?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Sam R-A‏ @samziz Jun 3
      Replying to @samziz @stillmansays @gorskon

      I also don’t see the clear epistemic distinction between ‘speculation’ and ‘evidence’, tbh. I’d say inferences like the one above count as evidence, in the sense that they provide justification for believing a claim. Do you mean physical evidence?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Sam R-A‏ @samziz Jun 3
      Replying to @samziz @stillmansays @gorskon

      If by ‘speculation’ you mean sth like ‘if X then Y, but we don’t know whether X’, then that’s fair. But this is more like ‘if X then Y [or at least Y is more likely], and we *do* know X’. That counts as evidence in my book. Maybe not sufficient on its own, but still evidence.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon Jun 3
      Replying to @samziz @stillmansays

      It’s not evidence. It’s speculation.

      9:23 AM - 3 Jun 2021
      • 1 Like
      • matthew stillman
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Sam R-A‏ @samziz Jun 3
          Replying to @gorskon @stillmansays

          How are you defining those two terms? I’m not trying to be argumentative for the sake of it, I’m just not aware of any exact agreed-upon definition of those two words - so it’d help to know. (I’m also not a card-carrying believer - too busy for all that - but I’m curious)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Sam R-A‏ @samziz Jun 3
          Replying to @samziz @gorskon @stillmansays

          ^ maybe an easier way of putting that question is: what’s the relevant difference (relevant as in: explaining why this is speculation but not evidence) between evidence and speculation in your book?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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