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gorskon's profile
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
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@gorskon

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David Gorski, MD, PhDVerified account

@gorskon

Surgeon/scientist promoting science in medicine and exposing quackery. Editor of Science-Based Medicine. My opinions do NOT represent those of my employers.

Michigan, USA
sciencebasedmedicine.org
Joined October 2009

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    David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon May 29

    David Gorski, MD, PhD Retweeted John Gordon MD

    And the epic misunderstanding of Bayes’ theorem among #LabLeak advocates continues, using almost exactly the same phrasing. It’s almost as though it’s a…talking point.🙄🤦🏻‍♂️https://twitter.com/jgordonshare/status/1397931594200059904 …

    David Gorski, MD, PhD added,

    John Gordon MD @jgordonshare
    Replying to @angie_rasmussen @ScottGottliebMD and 2 others
    Bayes theorem applies. The longer we go without identifying a natural source the more probability shifts to lab.
    4:42 PM - 29 May 2021
    • 3 Retweets
    • 70 Likes
    • 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave The REAL Truth About Vaccines Dr Paul Mackey Pedro Heringer David Simmer Michael B #FBPE Brennan Chapman Jennifer Colbourne, M.Rcc🦜🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦 Evan Allen🌱
    8 replies 3 retweets 70 likes
      1. PainScience.com‏ @PainSci May 29
        Replying to @gorskon

        Oy, not really "applying" Bayes theorem there in any way but sticking it onto a dumb statement like a bumper sticker. Great interview on This Week in Virology #760 with 3 of the scientists on the WHO team. All very smart, level-headed folks, working hard.https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-760/ 

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Iam Mudlet‏ @IMudlet May 29
        Replying to @gorskon

        well if you dont look you wont find it.. Back to environmental sampling

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Clay Jones‏ @SBMPediatrics May 29
        Replying to @gorskon

        What about Pascal’s Wager?

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Science: The Journey to Truth‏ @ScienceIsTruth May 29
        Replying to @SBMPediatrics @gorskon

        What about Jerry's Long Shot?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Pabnau‏ @pabnau May 29
        Replying to @gorskon

        Not sure what they’re even saying. I guess, maybe that it should be easier to find evidence of a natural source compared to a lab leak, so failure to obtain any evidence pushes the likelihood towards the lab leak. Seems like a pretty uncertain assumption

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday May 30
        Replying to @pabnau @gorskon

        It's much easier to find evidence of a lab leak unless you assume a conspiracy to cover it up. If you assume that conspiracy there's no reason it doesn't extend to fabricating evidence of anything other than a lab leak and this never gets anywhere.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jodie Burton‏ @jodiemburton May 29
        Replying to @gorskon @dfreedman7

        Oohhh I spy with my little eye someone who didn’t study biostatistics...

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday May 30
        Replying to @gorskon

        Worth reading the CDC's take on this for 2009 H1N1... a lab leak did not become more and more probable until the source was traced in 2016 - https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm …

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday May 30
        Replying to @alchemytoday @gorskon

        This sounds pretty familiar and I don't remember it creating an international incidentpic.twitter.com/hGea8kZDEE

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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