Oy, not really "applying" Bayes theorem there in any way but sticking it onto a dumb statement like a bumper sticker. Great interview on This Week in Virology #760 with 3 of the scientists on the WHO team. All very smart, level-headed folks, working hard.https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-760/
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well if you dont look you wont find it.. Back to environmental sampling
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What about Pascal’s Wager?
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What about Jerry's Long Shot?
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Not sure what they’re even saying. I guess, maybe that it should be easier to find evidence of a natural source compared to a lab leak, so failure to obtain any evidence pushes the likelihood towards the lab leak. Seems like a pretty uncertain assumption
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It's much easier to find evidence of a lab leak unless you assume a conspiracy to cover it up. If you assume that conspiracy there's no reason it doesn't extend to fabricating evidence of anything other than a lab leak and this never gets anywhere.
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Oohhh I spy with my little eye someone who didn’t study biostatistics...
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Worth reading the CDC's take on this for 2009 H1N1... a lab leak did not become more and more probable until the source was traced in 2016 - https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm …
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This sounds pretty familiar and I don't remember it creating an international incidentpic.twitter.com/hGea8kZDEE
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