OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Not impossible but less than 1% for a lab leak of a natural isolate. Logs below that for an engineered virus.
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Replying to @florian_krammer @NateSilver538
We need to assess possibility of lab leak not in isolation, based purely on scientific likelihood, but also in context of what we know: the admittedly circumstantial facts that emerge.This is no longer a purely scientific judgement but a security assessment based on entire mosaic
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Some of the ‘evolutionary theory’ being referred to by the virology community is - sorry to say - flawed. There is a lack of Bayesian analysis and probabilistic modelling in general. This results in a deeply flawed assessment of the risks and likelihood of events.
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Replying to @RuneLinding @ScottGottliebMD and
There is also emittance of the dose/response we have seen for this virus. The dose/response must be considered and dramatically lower the likelihood for the zoonotic hypothesis with this particular virus.
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Replying to @gorskon @ScottGottliebMD and
It’s being ignored in the discussion.
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Replying to @RuneLinding @ScottGottliebMD and
Even if true that doesn’t explain why it works make a difference.
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Replying to @gorskon @ScottGottliebMD and
There is a reason why these things should be handled in BSL4 and not BSL2 :) and it’s fair to assume that the risk of a person getting infected is related to amount of virus which can be far higher in the lab enviro. than other settings. In particular if at the wrong BSL.
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Replying to @RuneLinding @gorskon and
Your hands are waving so fast I can’t see them any more.
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IKR? Any faster and he’ll achieve takeoff velocity.
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