This is an epic misunderstanding of Bayes’ theorem.
https://twitter.com/jgordonshare/status/1397931594200059904 …
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As far as I know, there are no labs researching Ebola and making new recombinant strains to see which ones infect human cells and humanized mice right in the city of the outbreak. So the posterior for Ebola coming from a lab is still very low. But in general, if you keep 1/n
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coming up empty handed in your search for confirmation of your high-prior hypothesis, low-prior alternatives will increase in posterior and start deserving of more attention. That's how probability theory works. n/n
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