Yes Paul, I’m apparently too cognitively deficient to understand basic statistics. You guys are funny. Let me help you out here. Here’s the math. Ready? 389,000/328 million is the mortality rate. That is 1 out of every 100,000 (as epidemiologists like to phrase it).
-
-
Replying to @SimsYStuart @PaulVCooper1 and
Your calculation is incorrect (389,000/328,000,000)*100,000 = ~120 deaths per 100,000. This estimate is likely low due to lag time in reporting. /1
1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes -
-
Replying to @SimsYStuart @crabb_vicki and
Ok, I just checked my own math. I was incorrect (that’s what I get for trying to cook dinner and play with my kids while doing calculations). 389,000/328 million is 118 out of every 100,000. Good catch.
4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @SimsYStuart @PaulVCooper1 and
I make errors too. Mortality is not the only outcome of interest. It's generally the easiest to measure.
2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes -
Replying to @crabb_vicki @SimsYStuart and
I bet you don’t make errors that are off by 100-fold.
3 replies 0 retweets 12 likes -
Replying to @gorskon @crabb_vicki and
The percentage remains the same at 0.1% mortality, as does the validity of my point about mask mandates and neuroticism. But your glee at my pressing the wrong button on my calculator is very hurtful. Be careful Doc. I’m sensitive and I’d like to stay that way.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @SimsYStuart @gorskon and
You're confusing mortality rates with case-fatality rates (often given as a percentage) or IFR. Mortality rates capture the burden of disease. CFR/IFR capture the severity of the disease. You did admit your error.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @crabb_vicki @gorskon and
Am I? Mortality rate is the number of dead divided by the total population size. Case fatality is the number dead of those actually diagnosed with the disease. Correct?
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @SimsYStuart @crabb_vicki and
You do realize, don’t you, that for the past year
#COVID19 has been the number three cause of death in the US, behind cancer and heart disease. It’s killed considerably more than the next two causes of death (accidents and respiratory disease) combined.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm …2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
By your “logic,” if #COVID19 is not a major cause of death worthy of serious efforts to reduce the toll, then neither are accidents, pulmonary disease, stroke, suicide, diabetes, etc., all of which kill considerably fewer people per year than #COVID19 has killed this year.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.