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gorskon's profile
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
David Gorski, MD, PhD
Verified account
@gorskon

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David Gorski, MD, PhDVerified account

@gorskon

Surgeon/scientist promoting science in medicine and exposing quackery. Editor of Science-Based Medicine. My opinions do NOT represent those of my employers.

Michigan, USA
sciencebasedmedicine.org
Joined October 2009

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    1. Jacob Sullum‏Verified account @jacobsullum 22 Apr 2020

      Evidence that the COVID-19 virus is much less deadly than people feared weakens the case for maintaining lockdowns.https://reason.com/2020/04/22/shouldnt-covid-19s-lethality-inform-the-response-to-it/ …

      37 replies 36 retweets 67 likes
    2. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD 22 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jacobsullum

      Except this disease is much more contagious than the flu. You forgot that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    3. Jacob Sullum‏Verified account @jacobsullum 22 Apr 2020
      Replying to @JHowardBrainMD

      That point is certainly relevant, but so is the fatality rate. There's a huge difference between the 0.8% rate assumed by influential projections and a rate closer to 0.1% or 0.2%.

      5 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD 22 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jacobsullum

      That point is more than just relevant. Along with the mortality rate, it is the key number. Neither can be understood without the other. A disease that kills 0.1% or 0.2% of people will kill huge numbers if everyone gets it. Already, 1:700 people or so in NYC has died.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon 22 Apr 2020
      Replying to @JHowardBrainMD @jacobsullum

      Yup. The law of large numbers. Even if the “true” case fatality rate for #COVID19 turns out to be 0.1%, that would mean that if 100 million get the disease that’s 100K dead. BTW, we’re already almost halfway to that many dead after less than eight weeks.

      11:49 AM - 22 Apr 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 17 Likes
      • Ozymandias Q. Jones XXXIII⅓® Chris Paul Roszko I Dr Bruce Lobitz Wafik S. El-Deiry, MD, PhD, FACP Tom Rex 🏳️‍🌈 Roopa *StayHome* Nalam, MD, PhD Blue Texan Jonathan Howard
      2 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jacob Sullum‏Verified account @jacobsullum 22 Apr 2020
          Replying to @gorskon @JHowardBrainMD

          Yet 100,000 is a far cry from 2 million.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD 22 Apr 2020
          Replying to @jacobsullum @gorskon

          So the best answer is, we have extremely wide ranges about what this disease would do w/o social distancing, though it would likely ravage the elderly and ill. This doesn't say what we should do about it, but comparisons with the standard flu (which is bad enough) are flawed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD Jan 1
          Replying to @gorskon @jacobsullum

          Interested to revisit these old comments. I wish mine and gorskis aged poorly. Really.

          0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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