For everyone dismissing the threat of #COVID19 as exaggerated and pointing out that the case fatality rate is "only" 2%, read this thread. If spread continues unabated, even if only 10% require hospitalization, our healthcare system could be overwhelmed by sometime in May.https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909 …
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Replying to @gorskon
This is a suspect thread because the growth assumption is really non physical. I'll do something on it later but I wouldn't place stock in it
1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes -
I agree. Lots of people have freaked out at me because of this thread, but it's completely ignoring the experience in every country that isn't the US. Very unlikely to be true imo
2 replies 1 retweet 15 likes -
Yup. You can't just extrapolate from initial growth rate of epidemic & presume that's it. Growth is typically sigmoidal & hits a carrying capacity. That thread was irresponsible & unphysical for ignoring empirical & modelling evidence
3 replies 3 retweets 29 likes
Yeah, having thought about it more I’m thinking of deleting that Tweet.
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