Some more modeling...https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097553520660483?s=20 …
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I feel like I’m screaming into the void on this. I’m asthmatic, and I know so many other people at high risk.
I’m not asthmatic but I’ve had several bouts of pneumonia and bronchitis. It’s scary for younger folks at risk. I’m retired and able to hide away from the rest of the world for awhile. If had to be out every day with my inclination towards pulmonary ailments, I’d be quite anxious
2% is 1 in 50. That’s 1 in 50 people infected will die. Personally I don’t like those odds.
20 times the rate influenza killed Americans in 2019.
My husband’s Level 1 Trauma hospital is already at max capacity and has been for months. Even if you cancel all elective cases there are not enough regular beds if this virus continues to spread. Forget ICU and negative pressure rooms.
An Australian dr returned from the US last week and has covid-19 and has no idea who he got it off. That means there are many more cases than reported
This is a suspect thread because the growth assumption is really non physical. I'll do something on it later but I wouldn't place stock in it
I agree. Lots of people have freaked out at me because of this thread, but it's completely ignoring the experience in every country that isn't the US. Very unlikely to be true imo
Worth noting that the case-fatality ratio is pretty fluid, and several estimates now put it at ~0.5% due to large numbers of asymptomatic/mild cases that are only picked up with massive population testing (i.e. SK)
Yeah, it's always that pesky denominator that controls things.


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