And yes, I know, John Kerry lost in 2004. Noting that 2020 feels like 2004 doesn't exactly inspire confidence. And like I said, I'm still *nervous.* But it is what it is. Dem voters acted last night like in 2004. They weren't duped by a billionaire or controlled by the media.
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Dem voters were looking for a candidate who they believed could represent the party and beat Trump. They have become convinced (in only the past ~5 days) that Biden is that candidate. And they swarmed to him! Yikes! That escalated quickly. Let's pause to evaluate. (6/x)
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Going into last night, the Sanders campaign had two paths to the nomination. There was a good path and a bad path. The bad path just evaporated. The good one is looking less likely. (7/x)
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The bad path had Sanders winning a huge plurality of delegates without demonstrating the ability to win more than 30-40% of the vote in any primary. It was *very possible* that Sanders could have won 90% of California's delegates with, like 32% of the vote. (8/x)
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That's a bad way to win. It's a recipe for party in-fighting. But it could easily have happened, simply b/c there were 7 viable candidates + a 15% threshold for earning delegates. That didn't happen. If he becomes the nominee, he'll do so by building a majority coalition. Good.
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The trouble for Sanders is that his *good* path for the nomination also looks much rockier now. Sanders's candidacy is premised on transforming the electorate, bringing in a huge wave of new young and working class voters. That hasn't materialized yet. (10/x)
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If he can't bring in a big wave of new voters in the primaries, then it's going to be VERY hard to convince democratic voters that he can win in November. Sanders's promise is that he'll expand the electorate. But he hasn't. That promise looks suspect today. (11/x)
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That said, we should all maybe pause for a beat before crowning Joe Biden the nominee. Biden has not campaigned well. Maybe that will change now. Maybe he'll be charming-folksy-Joe who returns us to saner times and understands your pain. But maybe not. (12/x)
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There's a lot in Biden's record that can cause him trouble. When he was challenged on this in early debates, he stumbled hard. And yeah, I also worry that the years are catching up with him. Can he manage a massive campaign from now through November? (13/x)
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(I also REALLY worry about how he would govern. I think he's a replacement-level President when we need a serious reformer. But I'm gonna leave that for another tweetstorm. Even I'm getting a bit tired of me typing.) (14/x)
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If it means beating Trump, I'll gladly settle for a caretaker President, likely to be a one term President, surrounded by Obama administration veterans.
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