It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover.
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Replying to @Trumpislife16 @NateSilver538
Trump had a 30% chance of winning on the election day
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Yep. Trumpies don't understand probability and that sometimes low probability events do happen, just not as often as high probability events. And 30% isn't even that low a probability. It's roughly a one-in-three chance.
7:03 AM - 13 Aug 2019
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