Funny how antivaccine activists dismiss the possibility of death due to measles (~1 in 1,000) as being of little or no consequence; yet, a one in a million chance of severe reactions to a vaccine is completely unacceptable to them.
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Replying to @gorskon @holdenweb
Hmmm I agree with where you are coming from, but that’s a false argument. Everyone has to be exposed to the vaccine risk, but not everyone is exposed to measles... need to multiply to 1/1000 by the probability of being exposed to measles... and if everyone *else* is vaccinated...
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Replying to @connolly_s @gorskon
And the probability of being exposed to measles increases non-linearly as the proportion of those vaccinated goes down. We need herd immunity to protect those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.
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Replying to @holdenweb @gorskon
Of course... but if *everyone else* vaccinated their kids, and the vaccine is 100% effective then (and only then) it is less risk to not vaccinate your one kid (as long as everyone else keeps vaccinating)... the problem with that selfish attitude is...
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... there are some people who cannot be vaccinated (ie we know up front that the vaccines would cause them harm) those people need to be the only people not vaccinated (as they usually have a compromised immune system anyway)... by being selfish you harm them...
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... the maths and behaviour of long established vaccines is sound, eg measles... but the problem is for some other vaccines the maths is less clear-cut. Eg what about making the flu vaccine mandatory? It’s only 40% effective, so we’ll not majorly reduce flu incidents...
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... what’s the risk profile look like for a 40% effective vaccine? Remember the conditional probabilities kick in... if P1 = riskOfDeathFromFlu, P2 = riskOfDeathFromVac; If you vac: 0.6P1 + P2.... compared with P1 without. That’s just “immediate” death... what about late onset?
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How do we factor in risk of debilitating side-effects. There is alarm that the flu vaccine may raise the risk of Dementia... obviously *years* later... and proof near impossible without a lot of twin studies... should we allow people to opt out of the flu vaccine?
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Weird, I've never come across an anti-vaxxer that worked in technology. Usually IT people are smarter than that... even the dumb ones.
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I’m not anti-vacation... but I do object to mandatory flu vaccinations... but then I’m a chemist first and worked for multiple pharma companies... plus worked with clinical trials approvals, etc... so I might have a leas black&white view than you
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I've done clinical trials, and I am unimpressed. What was your specific role in clinical trial approvals?
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I was responsible for getting the clinical trials data management and analysis systems designed, implemented and through FDA approval for two different pharmaceutical companies. Part of this required a good understanding of the needs for the system...
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Replying to @connolly_s @gorskon and
You end up talking to a lot of people if you want to make sure the right system gets put in place.
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End of conversation
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