I can't answer because I know the source and I am harshly critical of this incredibly inflated estimate. However, I'm happy to see if any defenders of the estimate who might be following me know. https://twitter.com/BenMazer/status/1061658121691693056 …
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Not to be obtuse but we often base estimates on worst case scenarios that apply to the 95-99th. Especially in health-related fields
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That jibes with my memory-- we discussed it in my office, & wondered how it would be possible that half the deaths we dealt w/could be hospital error yet not caught by insurance examiners
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