After the election, I had to keep using meteorological forecasts to explain probability to people I'd have hoped already understood it.
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Hence why even in psychological studies our threshold is less than 5% random chance. And most don’t like anything above 1% chance of it occurring randomly. Because even a 5% or greater chance means it’s not surprising when it occurs.
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I had the same initial reaction, but what if that's his point? To encourage people NOT to skip the election for what may seem to be a "sure thing"... again.
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