superforecasters have shifted towards, & even beyond, my 2020-04-27 optimism (
) about Covid-19 vaccine availability: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ …pic.twitter.com/dvTeLUoCcZ
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superforecasters have shifted towards, & even beyond, my 2020-04-27 optimism (
) about Covid-19 vaccine availability: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ …pic.twitter.com/dvTeLUoCcZ
superforecasters now see >50% chance of at least 25 million doses of an FDA-approved vaccine available by 2020-04-01. (Wish this panel had more subrange resolution in the 2020-10-01 to 2020-03-31 timeframe!)pic.twitter.com/w28Y0dkQgk
nice writeup by @salonium on many factors affecting the reality & forecasting of vaccine arrival: https://unherd.com/2020/08/when-will-the-covid-19-vaccine-arrive/ …
"late/never: 25%" *screams internally* :(
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