Which isn't surprising, exactly - this kind of weird, mass competition happens at the end of a biz cycle, with everyone undercutting everyone else to try and steal customers away (since everything is solidified and incorporated already) - but it's still not how I imagined it, huh
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It'll happen slowly, peaking toward the end of the year, as launches in early 2019 peter out catastrophically and studios realize by mid to late 2019 that they're toast (and can't absorb the hit). They'll just vanish. Take contract work. It'll be a quiet exodus.
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The survivors will be those with the connections that let them absorb one or more failed launches with a combination of bridge contract work, publisher money (there will still be publisher money until THEIR games start collapsing in mid to late 2019 - which will also happen), etc
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The game now is, how do you gear your studio to survive the desert of 2020 and past. Since we're probably looking at a few solid years of wash out. Given how it'll line up, I'm guessing the next console wave will be what heralds the recovery, as they once again champion indies.
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It stands to reason that the consoles will be capital-flush again, and the indies that birth/resurface there will then roll into (hopefully) a recovered PC market, helmed by... Epic? Maybe? Maybe not? They'll have had 3-5 years by then to eat Steam's lunch.
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Really, this was all happening thru2018, maybe 2017, but you still had people splitting off to start new indie ventures cus of how public perception lags reality (GDC talks et al contribute to this). By late 2019 though? They'll have read 2018's Steam doom and gloom articles.pic.twitter.com/xxDAzQXf4R
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ANYWAYS, jesus, that was... depressing. Look here's a bird LOOK AT THIS CUTE BIRD. https://store.steampowered.com/app/971030/ pic.twitter.com/a1IJDm6KLJ
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Ah, and, bonus: Epic is pouring a lot of money into dominating the market lately, and consoles historically have sort of preferred Unreal Engine over Unity (and publishers have too), so, you might also see a significant push toward Unreal Engine as the default engine? Who knows.
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Er, and bonus actionable advice: the way you counter these situations is by doubling down in a niche that loves your stuff. I don't care how awash with free games I am, you can bet your ASS I'm buying
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We're transitioning to a boutique market, basically. Those games that can make the case they're truly remarkable and unique can survive, and likely still do fine. You're gonna struggle if you're Yet Another Metroidvania though, or (pick your glutted true-to-glutted-genre idea)
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So anyways, since we're talking about how much games today are struggling, I just stopped playing a (shouldn't have been free but it was free) game that I was loving so that I could re-install Oblivion for the umpteenth time and mod it up and now I'm doing that again. So. Yeah.pic.twitter.com/AYOxTlJdrt
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Also, purely as an aside, if anyone reads this and gets angry and WELL GOSH NO THAT'S WRONG BECAUSE- Good god yes please get out there and prove me wrong I'd LOVE to be 100% wrong about all of it. My birbs need me to be wrong about it too. Save my birbs.https://www.patreon.com/glassbottommeg
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Oh, and since someone's inevitably gonna turn this into a "Well of COURSE they say that they failed so-" Nah, any struggles Spartan Fist had nothing to do with the market, heh, and I'm pleased as punch with
@skatebirb's odds. I mean look at them. Look at this good little birb.pic.twitter.com/00E0nj2oLWShow this thread
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