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glassbottommeg's profile
Megan Fox
Megan Fox
Megan Fox
@glassbottommeg

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Megan Fox

@glassbottommeg

Queer af founder of @GlassBottomGame making SkateBIRD http://store.steampowered.com/app/971030/  birb chat: http://discord.gg/CdPgqWg  also @skatebirb

she/her in WA, USA
patreon.com/glassbottommeg
Joined January 2011

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    Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

    2019 Predictions: the writing was already on the wall wrt. Steam murdering indies in late 2018, but people are going to remember 2019 as the year indie died, due to a combination of Steam algo changes and mass dilution of the market with Discord, MS, etc giving away tons of games

    4:41 PM - 21 Jan 2019
    • 31 Retweets
    • 123 Likes
    • Henry Ewins Allie Edwyn Tiong sNek Saint Aldrich ❨☻ ben❩ Xavier Torres blank The One JP he/him
    14 replies 31 retweets 123 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        Which isn't surprising, exactly - this kind of weird, mass competition happens at the end of a biz cycle, with everyone undercutting everyone else to try and steal customers away (since everything is solidified and incorporated already) - but it's still not how I imagined it, huh

        1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        It'll happen slowly, peaking toward the end of the year, as launches in early 2019 peter out catastrophically and studios realize by mid to late 2019 that they're toast (and can't absorb the hit). They'll just vanish. Take contract work. It'll be a quiet exodus.

        1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        The survivors will be those with the connections that let them absorb one or more failed launches with a combination of bridge contract work, publisher money (there will still be publisher money until THEIR games start collapsing in mid to late 2019 - which will also happen), etc

        1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        The game now is, how do you gear your studio to survive the desert of 2020 and past. Since we're probably looking at a few solid years of wash out. Given how it'll line up, I'm guessing the next console wave will be what heralds the recovery, as they once again champion indies.

        2 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        It stands to reason that the consoles will be capital-flush again, and the indies that birth/resurface there will then roll into (hopefully) a recovered PC market, helmed by... Epic? Maybe? Maybe not? They'll have had 3-5 years by then to eat Steam's lunch.

        1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        Really, this was all happening thru2018, maybe 2017, but you still had people splitting off to start new indie ventures cus of how public perception lags reality (GDC talks et al contribute to this). By late 2019 though? They'll have read 2018's Steam doom and gloom articles.pic.twitter.com/xxDAzQXf4R

        1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        ANYWAYS, jesus, that was... depressing. Look here's a bird LOOK AT THIS CUTE BIRD. https://store.steampowered.com/app/971030/ pic.twitter.com/a1IJDm6KLJ

        3 replies 4 retweets 40 likes
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      9. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        Ah, and, bonus: Epic is pouring a lot of money into dominating the market lately, and consoles historically have sort of preferred Unreal Engine over Unity (and publishers have too), so, you might also see a significant push toward Unreal Engine as the default engine? Who knows.

        2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
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      10. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        Er, and bonus actionable advice: the way you counter these situations is by doubling down in a niche that loves your stuff. I don't care how awash with free games I am, you can bet your ASS I'm buying @MinekosMarket, because it's been so long since I had a proper Animal Crossing

        2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 21 Jan 2019

        We're transitioning to a boutique market, basically. Those games that can make the case they're truly remarkable and unique can survive, and likely still do fine. You're gonna struggle if you're Yet Another Metroidvania though, or (pick your glutted true-to-glutted-genre idea)

        10 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
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      12. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 22 Jan 2019

        So anyways, since we're talking about how much games today are struggling, I just stopped playing a (shouldn't have been free but it was free) game that I was loving so that I could re-install Oblivion for the umpteenth time and mod it up and now I'm doing that again. So. Yeah.pic.twitter.com/AYOxTlJdrt

        2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      13. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 22 Jan 2019

        Also, purely as an aside, if anyone reads this and gets angry and WELL GOSH NO THAT'S WRONG BECAUSE- Good god yes please get out there and prove me wrong I'd LOVE to be 100% wrong about all of it. My birbs need me to be wrong about it too. Save my birbs.https://www.patreon.com/glassbottommeg 

        2 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Megan Fox‏ @glassbottommeg 22 Jan 2019

        Oh, and since someone's inevitably gonna turn this into a "Well of COURSE they say that they failed so-" Nah, any struggles Spartan Fist had nothing to do with the market, heh, and I'm pleased as punch with @skatebirb's odds. I mean look at them. Look at this good little birb.pic.twitter.com/00E0nj2oLW

        2 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      15. End of conversation

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