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Vis denne trådTak. Twitter bruger dette til at forbedre din tidslinje. FortrydFortryd
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If you calculate impeachment (and almost certain acquittal in the Senate) meaningfully increases the likelihood of Trump’s re-election , it’s neither politically savvy or the “moral” thing to do. The goal is getting him out of office as soon as possible.
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How do people calculate that? I want to see those calculations.
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He gets a huge political W if he comes out unscathed and can use that to sail to reelection. His supporters aren't leaving him and therefore he only needs to convince a few others it was a Democratic hack job. Plenty will believe him.
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That’s the thing. I want to see how you calculated that. That conclusion is based on what?
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The calculation is "I made it up"
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I think it was Bruce Schneier who said that whenever someone explains a complete fuckup with “we took a calculated risk,” you should ask to see the calculations.
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Incumbent advantage and the conservative lean of the parts of the country he needs to get over the hump are what I think makes up that calculation. I'd say those are huge factors if he gets exonerated in helping him pick up swing votes.
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Incumbent advantage and the conservative lean of the country are not relevant to whether a failed impeachment helps or harms a President’s re-election chances. Your calculation is looking very shoddy so far.
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Let's not try things because we might fail is quite the argument here.
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Okay, but this is a "will definitely fail" situation.
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Even if the impeachment fails, there must be some value to humiliating him via public testimony and further exposure of his crimes (minus redaction this time around).
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But when it inevitably fails, which is the equivalent to an acquittal, Donald Trump and Rush Limbaugh can rightly claim that he was found not guilty of all the crimes we know he’s committ(ed/ing). That’s worse for the resistance. The best course of action: vote Dems in 2020.
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Ah yes, because he definitely won't (and isn't presently) doing that already. Let's not do X because Trump and Limbaugh will lie about it to their sheep who take them at their word is an argument you can apply to literally anything
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Except that during the Lewinsky scandal, when the Senate acquitted Bill Clinton, the Republican Party lost seats in the midterm. The opposition party NEVER loses seats in the midterms. An unsuccessful inquisitorial impeachment caused that loss. It’ll cause one for Dems, too.
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Bad example
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At the very least, it would put
@GOP Senators on the record tolerating breathtaking levels of obstruction. -
And actually obstructing
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the constitution was written with the assumption that there would never be political parties; adopting a first-past-the-post voting system for every major elected office made its ultimate failure inevitable
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fwiw i don't think attempted impeachment would be a huge political win or loss for trump; his approval rating will stay at 40% unless he becomes totally undeniably senile, launches a nuclear strike against white people, or personally performs an abortion live on tv
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If it's a brown baby he wins in 2020.
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Underrated gem of a tweet
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