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  1. 4. velj

    If you have a great OS project (or even an idea) - you must read these 10 OS Laws to understand what to focus on in the early days - Thanks to my partner !

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  2. 31. sij

    Building on Balaji’s point, NEMJ conservative analysis is a doubling in a week. So take 2 to the 8th power to calculate 8 weeks. That’s 256. Multiply 256 times 10K case today = 2.5M. 2% fatality rate=50K dead in 2 months. Keep doing the doubling math for 12 weeks=40M cases

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  3. 31. sij

    Because a very large majority of people are discounting that this is the flu, SARS, etc. Being aware and changing travel plans, keeping immuno-compromised out of public areas, etc. There is plenty for people to know about the danger magnitude so they take precautions now.

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  4. 31. sij

    Unfortunately no. Some early flu pandemics had .1%, not the 2.3.% we are seeing now. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic had anywhere from a 2.5% to 10% mortality rate. 3-6% of the global population died from that specific flu that humans were never exposed to.

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  5. 31. sij

    If my previous tweet of global 2.5M confirmed coronavirus cases occur in 8 weeks, could be the black swan event for the elections in the US.

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  6. 31. sij

    Assuming coronavirus maintains its current transmission rate, 8 weeks from today, there will be 2.5M confirmed cases. 2% mortality of that is a large number. You can do the math for what happens after that.

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  7. 30. sij

    And this doesn’t assumes low capture rate of the cases in the last several days of the month, which would bring it close to 16X.

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  8. 30. sij
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  9. 30. sij

    9) in closing, with this implied potential scary pandemic, stay informed, smart, and safe. Realize that there will be multiple analyses suggesting different outcomes. Be kind and protective of each other.

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  10. 30. sij

    8) We can’t count on “could” burn out for the virus. Massive controls around quarantine, detection, vaccine creation are necessary. At a minimum. We might just be seeing the tip of the iceberg and only seeing the serious cases.

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  11. 30. sij

    7) All of this is predicated on the early data so far from case emergence that suggests mid-December patient one. It assumes the transmission rates and statistical analysis of what has occurred so far. We could be way off. And this virus could burn out.

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  12. 30. sij

    6) on the political side, if we have cases that start to reach into the millions, which based on this transmission factors, it will create political pressures on travel and border control. This time it will be in the name of physical infection. Assumes NEMJ transmission data.

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  13. 30. sij

    5) on the social side, of course social media will be a vector for information of all types. The morbid irony of early internet social media picking up the term “viral marketing” is not lost on us.

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  14. 30. sij

    4) On the psychological side, fear of the unseen unknown coupled w/ knowledge of previous pandemics are the kindling. Mob fear and hysteria driven via social media may not help. If it comes to it, hopefully social media will show how we can pull together to face a common enemy

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  15. 30. sij

    3) Containment of this type of coronavirus will require massive quarantine and travel reductions/restrictions unlike we have seen before on a global scale. Not only because of the potential increase of cases in the next month, but because of psychological, social, and political.

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  16. 30. sij

    2) There are 8200 cases today, 1/31. One week ago, there were approx ~900. 3 days ago, approx ~4500. These are rough numbers to illustrate magnitude and velocity of the transmission from the reproductive rate and the interval of doubling, which is worse than previous tweet

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  17. 30. sij

    1) Reproductive rate of cases, basically how many people will be infected by one infected person is 2.2. Unfortunately this interval is occurring every 7.4 days. Doubling every week becomes a very large number if unchecked. That is 8x growth per month.

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  18. 30. sij

    Coronavirus transmission paper just published by NEMJ. This is based on data from mid December and is the most conservative I have seen. I am concerned for a group of different reasons in the following tweets:

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    “We invested in Wheel, because they provide companies with a flexible and reliable workforce of clinicians, and the tech-enabled platform to empower these clinicians to practice quality care at scale.” on our investment in Wheel’s Series A.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Lab-Grown Heart Muscles Have Been Transplanted Into a Human For The First Time

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