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geoffreyvs's profile
Geoffrey Skelley
Geoffrey Skelley
Geoffrey Skelley
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@geoffreyvs

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Geoffrey SkelleyVerified account

@geoffreyvs

Elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. @Center4Politics alum. Politics, sports, history, music. @UVA @JMU #COYS he/him

fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/g…
Joined October 2009

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    1. Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 17 Dec 2019

      I watched Lincoln the other day & Van Drew’s situation brings to mind Alexander Coffroth’s. In the movie, Coffroth (D) wanted to switch to Rs & vote for 13th Amendment. But Thaddeus Stevens tells him to remain a Dem & vote for it to have more bipartisan support THEN switch later.

      5 replies 9 retweets 41 likes
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    2. Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 17 Dec 2019

      Not sure remaining a D then switching would be more meaningful than switching then voting against impeachment. But 2020 election timeline+modern primary system pressures for earlier switch. Plus, earlier switch may get him Trump’s support, critical to his renomination chances.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    3. Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 17 Dec 2019

      Also worth noting that Coffroth never switched parties, so I’m not sure about how much truth there is to that storyline without doing some digging I don’t have time for right now!

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    4. Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 17 Dec 2019

      FWIW Coffroth eventually lost that contested election, which led to him being replaced by his Republican opponent late in the 39th Congress (in July 1866 after being seeking reelection in the fall of 1864). http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=C000593 …

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      Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 17 Dec 2019

      And wow, a Pennsylvania newspaper around that time referred to Democrats as "Cop." or Copperheads rather than using "Dem." as an abbreviation.pic.twitter.com/CM25CJcmSs

      10:32 AM - 17 Dec 2019
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      • Barely Optimistic Mets Fan una brújula dice “no on recall” 🧦🗳️🇹🇼🇨🇳 kenneth Connor Ouchi Meg Heubeck Jacob Alperin-Sheriff 🐵 ethan winter
      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. Geoffrey Skelley‏Verified account @geoffreyvs 18 Dec 2019

          Just to tack on a final point to this -- Van Drew will probably cast his final vote as a Dem on impeachment and then switch. So a little Coffroth-esque, at least in the guise of the movie.https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/democrats-slam-van-drew-misses-first-house-vote-party-switch-news …

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