Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyvs

Elections analyst . alum. Politics, sports, history, music. , Likes are mostly old Twitter ⭐️

Vrijeme pridruživanja: listopad 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    11. sij 2018.

    Looking for election results? I made a Google spreadsheet with state-by-state sources for results. Let me know if there's one I missed because I probably did!

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Our model is updated, using probabilistic forecasts of Iowa.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Advantages of NM : Insane local politics/machines Different ethnic mix than anywhere else in country Awesome hiking/skiing Terrific food Close to me Disadvantages of NM :

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  4. prije 6 sati

    Iowa did have a presidential primary law for exactly one election -- 1916 -- but abandoned it after that.

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  5. prije 7 sati

    To be clear, this is a joke because almost none of the Twitterverse yelling about this is from Iowa, and Iowa surely would not want to give up its precious caucuses. Iowa's also in a jam because New Hampshire will choose to jump ahead of it if it uses a primary.

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  6. prije 7 sati

    Every single person whining about the vote issues in Iowa and the use of SDEs and the problems we're having should call their Iowa legislator and request that Iowa establish a presidential primary by law.

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  7. prije 7 sati

    OK, so it looks like the Iowa data has been adjusted to get rid of the erroneous votes for Patrick. Updated delegate look by district and overall, with district-level support (by state delegate equivalents).

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  8. prije 7 sati

    I'm still LOLing at the idea of Deval Patrick being the choice for a rigged Iowa caucus vote

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    is john roberts about to start signing yearbooks

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  10. prije 8 sati

    So many people hungry for a conspiracy that they'll bite on literally anything, no matter how absurd

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    AP gov did not adequately prepare me for the seemingly simultaneous moment of the senate acquitting the president and the arrival of caucus results from 85% of Iowa precincts

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  12. prije 8 sati

    Expect to hear a lot of “bipartisan vote to convict” from Democrats.

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  13. prije 8 sati

    I deleted my updated delegate and district-level percentages because there's clearly something input wrong (Deval Patrick up to 21 SDEs lololol).

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  14. prije 8 sati

    "This" being the final vote on impeachment charges in the U.S. Senate. Not a big deal or anything...

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A mystery PAC with ties to Republicans are dumping $1.2m+ into NC SEN on behalf of Erica Smith, the more liberal candidate in the race.

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  16. prije 8 sati

    If this comes to pass, I would've lost a bet on the number of Dem senators voting to acquit > number of GOP senators voting to convict

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  17. prije 9 sati

    Something about a CNN commercial for "The Windsors" -- a show about the British royal family -- that uses Coldplay's "The Scientist" and the line "No one ever said it would be this hard" seems off key. Hard to be a royal? Paparazzi, sure, but being filthy rich is nice.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Republican senators were scoffing at the idea that Romney would be kicked out of the conference or face any kind of formal retribution for his vote

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  19. prije 10 sati

    Mitt Romney...probably not running for another Senate term in 2024? Just a guess, though Utah is the most Trump-skeptic heavily Republican state in the country by leaps and bounds.

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  20. prije 10 sati

    if you're wondering about the way delegate allocation rules work when it comes to calculating things, here's a good explanation from the invaluable .

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  21. prije 10 sati

    With 70 more precincts added, here's an update of the delegate standings based on state delegate equivalents. Since my last update, Biden gained back a delegate and Sanders lost one by the thinnest of remainders on delegate allocation.

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