Yes, prediction markets are manipulatable. And, they are at best noisy proxies. But, really, I think it's accurate here.
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The expectation didn't change. People just engaged in cheap talk waiting for the storm to pass.
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Absent from prediction market point predictions? The distribution. The variance increased. The really bad outcomes became more likely.
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Yah but, I lost buy buying Hillary to win at 0.44 even though she was trading at 0.98 the night before the election.
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