Restated a bit: experts assemble and accrete massive priors through continuous testing of and familiarity with their domain. When some sort of regime change occurs though, these massive priors slow updating, at least compared to those paying attention with weak priors.https://twitter.com/generativist/status/1246817101009973249 …
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I think the wisest people are those that are always collecting observations (not masters of logic, philosophy, ideology.) We are all one new observation away from being wrong. What a person does with that observation when it comes in says something about that person.
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I usually turn to tetlock on cognitive style and prediction, I want an expert with a flexible style of thought.
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