The answer isn't "stop listening to experts" or "stop listening to non-experts." And, although, I don't even have any answers — making sure you have a good mixture of heterogeneous sources is pretty useful.
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That’s one of the best explanations of tetlock’s fox and hedgehog I’ve heard. There’s also a distinction between making a prediction and knowing what to do once you have a diagnosis. Experts very valuable in the latter case.
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